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Sunderland vs Chelsea Prediction: Key Stats and Betting Tips

Sunderland bring the curtain down on their Premier League campaign at the Stadium of Light on 24 May 2026, with Chelsea the visitors in a fixture that has plenty riding on mid-table positions and European qualification spots. With the hosts sitting 10th on 51 points and the visitors 8th on 52 points, this is a direct shootout that could reshape the final top-half picture and, for Chelsea, help consolidate their place in the Conference League qualification zone.

Under the watch of referee C. Kavanagh, Sunderland will look to lean on their solid home record and the backing of the Stadium of Light crowd to finish strongly. Chelsea, however, arrive with one of the more dangerous attacks in the division, and the battle between Sunderland’s structure and Chelsea’s firepower will be central to any Sunderland vs Chelsea prediction.

Stats suggest a tight contest: Sunderland have been hard to beat at home, while Chelsea’s season has been defined by inconsistency but also by a significantly higher goal output. Bettors searching for Sunderland vs Chelsea betting tips and a data-driven Sunderland vs Chelsea preview will see a clash of contrasting profiles – a more pragmatic Sunderland side against a Chelsea team that scores and concedes at high volume.

Sunderland vs Chelsea Key Stats

  • Sunderland sit 10th with 51 points from 37 matches, scoring 40 and conceding 47 in the Premier League.
  • Sunderland won 2-1 away at Stamford Bridge in their most recent league meeting on 25 October 2025.
  • Sunderland average 1.1 goals scored and 1.3 goals conceded per game, while Chelsea average 1.5 scored and 1.4 conceded.

Sunderland vs Chelsea — Tale of the Tape

  • Position: 10 vs 8
  • Points: 51 vs 52
  • Goals For: 40 vs 57
  • Goals Against: 47 vs 50
  • Clean Sheets: Sunderland 11 vs Chelsea 9

The season record shows Sunderland have put together a solid mid-table campaign, with 13 wins, 12 draws and 12 defeats from 37 matches. Their goal difference of -7 underlines a side that is competitive but rarely dominant, relying on structure and discipline rather than explosive attacking performances. At home they have been robust, winning 8 of 18 and losing only 4, with 23 goals scored and 19 conceded.

Chelsea, in contrast, have been more volatile but carry greater attacking threat. With 14 wins, 10 draws and 13 defeats, and a goal difference of +7, they have scored 57 times – 17 more than Sunderland – but conceded slightly more overall. Their away record is respectable: 7 wins, 5 draws and 6 defeats from 18 games, with 31 goals scored and 25 conceded. Chelsea are already in the “Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)” zone, but a positive result here would cement that status and potentially improve their final ranking.

Sunderland vs Chelsea Key Matchups

E. Le Fée vs Joã​o Pedro

Enzo Jérémy Le Fée has been one of Sunderland’s most influential players in midfield. Across 35 appearances (32 starts) and 2,855 minutes, he has contributed 5 goals and 6 assists, underpinned by 1,073 passes at 81% accuracy and 49 key passes. His work rate is impressive, with 85 tackles, 11 blocks and 27 interceptions, and he has also attempted 45 dribbles, succeeding 13 times. Sunderland will lean heavily on his ability to progress the ball and link play, as well as his set-piece and passing quality in the final third.

For Chelsea, Joã​o Pedro is the standout attacking threat. In 34 appearances (30 starts) and 2,584 minutes, he has scored 15 goals and provided 5 assists, with 50 shots (28 on target). His all-round contribution is notable: 677 passes at 76% accuracy, 29 key passes, 71 dribble attempts with 37 successes, and 54 fouls drawn. He also ranks high for duels, engaging in 386 and winning 187. Sunderland’s defensive structure will be severely tested by his movement between the lines and his ability to win penalties – he has won 3 spot-kicks this season.

G. Xhaka vs E. Fernández

Granit Xhaka offers Sunderland control and aggression in midfield. In 33 appearances (31 starts) and 2,813 minutes, he has 1 goal and 6 assists, backed by 1,755 passes at 83% accuracy and 34 key passes. Defensively he is strong, with 50 tackles, 20 blocks and 29 interceptions, and he has won 155 of 255 duels. His 7 yellow cards underline how combative he can be, but his distribution and leadership are crucial to Sunderland’s ability to resist Chelsea’s press and transition quickly.

Enzo Jeremías Fernández has been one of Chelsea’s most complete performers. Over 35 appearances (34 starts) and 3,031 minutes, he has scored 10 goals and supplied 4 assists. His passing volume is elite: 1,983 passes at 86% accuracy with 67 key passes, showing how much of Chelsea’s creative burden he carries. He contributes defensively too, with 52 tackles and 21 interceptions, and he has converted 2 penalties. His 9 yellow cards show he plays on the edge, but if he controls the tempo, Chelsea will likely dictate large spells of possession.

Head-to-Head: Last Meetings

This fixture has a rich recent history, with both clubs enjoying big wins and shock results. The last 10 meetings across league and cup have been competitive, with Sunderland capable of upsetting the traditional balance despite Chelsea’s overall edge.

  • 25 October 2025: Chelsea 1-2 Sunderland (Premier League)
  • 21 May 2017: Chelsea 5-1 Sunderland (Premier League)
  • 14 December 2016: Sunderland 0-1 Chelsea (Premier League)
  • 7 May 2016: Sunderland 3-2 Chelsea (Premier League)
  • 19 December 2015: Chelsea 3-1 Sunderland (Premier League)

Sunderland vs Chelsea Prediction

Analysis points to a finely balanced contest. Sunderland’s league form line of “WDDLL” suggests they have tailed off slightly, with just one win in their last five league games. Chelsea’s “WDLLL” is even more concerning, with one win, one draw and three defeats over the same span. However, Chelsea’s season-long attacking numbers and superior goal difference hint at a higher ceiling.

The prediction model leans towards Chelsea avoiding defeat, with win-or-draw for the visitors and both the draw and away win rated at 45%, compared to just 10% for a home victory. Total goals projections are conservative (both sides under 2.5), indicating a tight, tactical game rather than a shootout. Sunderland’s strong home record and clean-sheet capability could keep this close, but Chelsea’s individual quality in the final third – particularly through Joã​o Pedro and Enzo Fernández – gives them a slight edge.

Predicted Score: Sunderland 0-1 Chelsea

Sunderland League Form

WDDLL

Chelsea League Form

WDLLL

Sunderland Possible Starting Lineup

M. Ellborg; O. Alderete, D. Ballard, Reinildo, L. Geertruida; G. Xhaka, T. Hume, E. Le Fée, C. Rigg; B. Brobbey, W. Isidor.

Sunderland have used a 4-2-3-1 more than any other shape this season, and the personnel available suggest something similar again. M. Ellborg could start in goal, protected by a back line featuring the physical presence of D. Ballard and the defensive nous of Reinildo and L. Geertruida. In midfield, G. Xhaka and T. Hume offer bite and distribution, with E. Le Fée and C. Rigg tasked with linking play and supplying the forwards. In attack, B. Brobbey and W. Isidor provide mobility and direct running, looking to exploit spaces behind Chelsea’s back line.

Chelsea Possible Starting Lineup

Robert Sánchez; Marc Cucurella, T. Chalobah, B. Badiashile, R. James; M. Caicedo, E. Fernández; C. Palmer, Pedro Neto, A. Garnacho; Joã​o Pedro.

Chelsea have predominantly lined up in a 4-2-3-1, and that structure suits the balance of their squad. Robert Sánchez is the established number one in goal, with a back four where Marc Cucurella and R. James offer width, and T. Chalobah and B. Badiashile provide aerial strength. In midfield, M. Caicedo’s ball-winning (87 tackles, 57 interceptions) allows E. Fernández to dictate play and push forward. Ahead of them, C. Palmer, Pedro Neto and A. Garnacho can support Joã​o Pedro, whose 15-goal haul makes him the focal point of Chelsea’s attack.

Sunderland Team News

No significant absences reported.

Chelsea Team News

No significant absences reported.

Injuries & Suspensions

Sunderland:

  • None reported.

Chelsea:

  • None reported.

Betting Tips: Sunderland vs Chelsea

Exactly 3 distinct tips from different markets:

  • Result Tip: Back Chelsea in the Draw No Bet or double-chance market. The prediction edge favours “Win or draw” for Chelsea, with home win probability at just 10% versus 45% for both draw and away win. In the 1x2 market, away odds are around 2.00–2.05 with firms like Bet365 (2.00) and 1xBet (2.05), offering a reasonable price given Chelsea’s superior goal difference and attacking numbers.
  • Goals Tip: Under 3.5 goals appeals. Sunderland average 1.1 goals for and 1.3 against, while Chelsea average 1.5 for and 1.4 against, and the projections point to both sides under 2.5 individually. Recent H2H includes several tight games at the Stadium of Light, such as 1-0 and 3-2 scorelines, but the current prediction leans towards a low-scoring contest. While specific under/over odds are not listed, the general 1x2 pricing (draw around 3.60–3.80 and away around 2.00) suggests the market expects a competitive but not wildly open match.
  • Value Tip: Consider Chelsea to score first. Chelsea have scored 57 league goals to Sunderland’s 40 and boast key attacking contributors like Joã​o Pedro (15 goals, 5 assists) and E. Fernández (10 goals, 4 assists). With away win odds as high as 2.05 at 1xBet and 2.02 at Unibet and Marathonbet, derivative markets such as “Chelsea first goal” or “Chelsea lead at any time” are likely to offer attractive prices relative to Sunderland’s lower attacking output.

How to Watch Sunderland vs Chelsea

Broadcast coverage varies by region. General guide:

  • Spain: Movistar LaLiga
  • UK: Premier Sports
  • Australia: beIN Sports
  • India: FanCode
  • MENA: beIN Sports
  • South America: ESPN / Disney+
  • Africa: SuperSport

Odds are accurate at the time of writing and subject to change. Please gamble responsibly.

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