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Burnley vs Wolves Prediction: Key Stats and Betting Tips

Burnley host Wolves at Turf Moor in a final-day Premier League clash that decides little in terms of survival, but plenty in terms of pride and finishing order. Both sides are already locked in the relegation zone, yet this head-to-head still carries weight: 19th-placed Burnley sit on 21 points, just two ahead of bottom club Wolves on 19, with one last chance to climb off the foot of the table.

With Turf Moor as the backdrop, the narrative is clear. Burnley have been marginally better over the campaign, scoring 37 goals but conceding 74 across 37 matches, while Wolves have struggled badly in attack with only 26 goals in 37 games. For those looking at a Burnley vs Wolves prediction, the matchup pits one of the league’s leakiest defences against the division’s bluntest attack, creating an intriguing tactical and betting puzzle on the final day.

Beyond league position, recent head-to-head history suggests this fixture is often tight but rarely dull. Bettors searching for Burnley vs Wolves betting tips will note that meetings at Turf Moor have frequently gone Burnley’s way, while Wolves have dominated some of the contests at Molineux. That balance, combined with current form and odds, makes this a compelling fixture for value seekers.

Burnley vs Wolves Key Stats

  • Burnley are 19th with 21 points from 37 games, having won just 4 league matches and conceded 74 goals.
  • In their most recent Premier League meeting on 26 October 2025 at Molineux Stadium, Burnley beat Wolves 3-2 away.
  • Burnley have kept 4 clean sheets in the league, the same total as Wolves, despite conceding more goals overall.

Burnley vs Wolves — Tale of the Tape

  • Position: 19 vs 20
  • Points: 21 vs 19
  • Goals For: 37 vs 26
  • Goals Against: 74 vs 67
  • Clean Sheets: Burnley 4 vs Wolves 4

The season record shows two struggling sides, but with slightly different profiles. Burnley have scored more freely, averaging 1.0 goals per game, yet their defensive frailties are stark with 74 conceded and a goal difference of -37. Wolves, by contrast, have been marginally tighter at the back with 67 conceded, but their attack has been among the weakest in the league, averaging just 0.7 goals per match.

Home and away splits reinforce the picture. Burnley have taken just 2 wins from 18 home games, scoring 17 and conceding 28, while Wolves are winless on their travels, with 0 wins, 5 draws and 13 defeats away, scoring only 7 and conceding 33. With both clubs already consigned to relegation, this match is about avoiding bottom place and salvaging some momentum, with Burnley’s slightly better attacking numbers balanced against Wolves’ marginally stronger defensive metrics.

Burnley vs Wolves Key Matchups

Z. Flemming vs André

Z. Flemming has been Burnley’s standout attacking threat. The 27-year-old has scored 10 league goals in 28 appearances, starting 20 times and logging 1,723 minutes. His output comes from 37 shots, 20 of them on target, and he has also converted 2 penalties from 2 attempts. With 10 key passes and 26 fouls drawn, Flemming is central to Burnley’s chance creation and set-piece threat.

For Wolves, André has been a key presence in midfield, particularly out of possession. Across 34 appearances and 2,676 minutes, he has contributed 1 goal and completed 1,285 passes at an impressive 91% accuracy, with 18 key passes. Defensively, he has made 78 tackles, 12 blocks and 29 interceptions, while engaging in 281 duels and winning 143. His 12 yellow cards underline his combative style. The battle between Flemming’s movement and André’s screening work could dictate how often Burnley manage to break Wolves’ lines.

K. Walker vs João Gomes

On Burnley’s right, K. Walker has offered experience and defensive solidity. He has played 35 times, starting 34 and amassing 3,007 minutes. While he has yet to score, he has provided 2 assists and delivered 12 key passes from 1,361 total passes at 76% accuracy. Defensively, Walker has made 55 tackles, 10 blocks and 44 interceptions, winning 136 of 258 duels. His 9 yellow cards suggest he plays on the edge, but his reading of the game remains vital.

João Gomes has been Wolves’ engine in midfield. Over 35 appearances and 2,843 minutes, he has scored 1 goal and added 1 assist, with 16 key passes from 1,453 total passes at 85% accuracy. His defensive work is outstanding: 108 tackles, 6 blocks, 36 interceptions and 449 duels, of which he has won 227. With 10 yellow cards, he is similarly aggressive. The contest between Walker’s overlapping runs and João Gomes’ ball-winning and pressing on that flank will be crucial in determining territory and transitions.

Head-to-Head: Last Meetings

Recent meetings between Burnley and Wolves have been competitive, with both sides enjoying spells of dominance. Across the last five competitive fixtures listed below, Burnley have three wins, Wolves have one, and there has been one draw.

  • 26 October 2025: Wolves 2-3 Burnley (Premier League)
  • 28 August 2024: Wolves 2-0 Burnley (League Cup)
  • 2 April 2024: Burnley 1-1 Wolves (Premier League)
  • 5 December 2023: Wolves 1-0 Burnley (Premier League)
  • 9 July 2022: Wolves 3-0 Burnley (Friendlies Clubs)

Burnley vs Wolves Prediction

Analysis points to a tight, low-scoring contest between two relegated sides struggling for confidence. Burnley’s league form reads “LDLLL”, while Wolves’ is “DLDLL”, highlighting that neither have found consistent results. However, the comparison metrics marginally favour Wolves overall, and the prediction metrics give Wolves a 45% chance of victory and a 45% chance of a draw, with only 10% allocated to a Burnley win.

Both teams average under 1 goal scored per game and concede well over 1.5, but Wolves’ away attack has been particularly poor at 0.4 goals per match. The advice leans towards a “double chance: draw or Wolves”, and given the final-day context, a cautious, cagey game with limited clear chances feels likely. With the goals projections indicating a very low output (both sides effectively projected under 1.5 goals), a narrow away edge or stalemate is the most plausible outcome.

Predicted Score: Burnley 0-1 Wolves

Burnley League Form

LDLLL

Wolves League Form

DLDLL

Burnley Possible Starting Lineup

M. Dúbravka; K. Walker, M. Estève, J. Worrall, Lucas Pires; J. Ward-Prowse, Florentino, J. Laurent; Z. Flemming, J. Bruun Larsen, L. Foster.

Burnley have frequently used back-four systems such as 4-2-3-1 and 4-3-3, and the squad composition suggests a similar shape here. M. Dúbravka offers experience in goal, with K. Walker providing leadership and width from right-back. In midfield, J. Ward-Prowse, Florentino and J. Laurent give a mix of set-piece quality, ball-winning and box-to-box running, while Z. Flemming is expected to operate as the main attacking focal point behind or around a central striker such as L. Foster. With several attacking options including J. Bruun Larsen and A. Barnes, Burnley can adjust between a more direct approach and a possession-based game.

Wolves Possible Starting Lineup

José Sá; Y. Mosquera, Toti Gomes, L. Krejčí; Pedro Lima, André, João Gomes, Hugo Bueno; Rodrigo Gomes; Hwang Hee-Chan, A. Armstrong.

Wolves have predominantly favoured three-at-the-back structures like 3-4-2-1 and 3-5-2, and the available personnel point towards another back three. José Sá is a reliable presence in goal, protected by a physically strong trio including Y. Mosquera, who has been heavily involved defensively. Wing-backs such as Pedro Lima and Hugo Bueno can provide width, while André and João Gomes form a combative, high-work-rate midfield partnership. In attack, creative support from Rodrigo Gomes behind forwards like Hwang Hee-Chan and A. Armstrong would give Wolves counter-attacking potential, even if their overall goal return has been modest.

Burnley Team News

No significant absences reported.

Wolves Team News

No significant absences reported.

Injuries & Suspensions

Burnley:

  • None reported.

Wolves:

  • None reported.

Betting Tips: Burnley vs Wolves

Exactly 3 distinct tips from different markets:

  • Result Tip: Back Wolves Draw No Bet or double chance (draw or Wolves). The prediction metrics give Wolves a 45% chance of victory and 45% for the draw, with only 10% for Burnley. Wolves are slightly favoured in the overall comparison and have the “win or draw” edge. For those taking a straight result, Wolves are around 2.75 with Bet365 and 2.79 with Pinnacle, while Burnley are shorter at approximately 2.50–2.56, making the away side the more attractive risk-reward option.
  • Goals Tip: Under 2.5 goals. Burnley average 1.0 goals scored and 2.0 conceded per game, while Wolves average just 0.7 scored and 1.8 conceded. Wolves’ away attack has produced only 7 goals in 18 matches. Head-to-head games at Turf Moor have often been tight, including a 1-1 draw on 2 April 2024 and a 1-0 Burnley win on 24 April 2022. While specific under/over odds are not listed here, the low-scoring profiles of both teams support a conservative goals position.
  • Value Tip: Card-focused angle on Wolves’ midfield. André has collected 12 yellow cards this season, while João Gomes has 10, and Wolves’ season card distribution shows a heavy concentration of yellows between minutes 46-75. This points to a high likelihood of disciplinary action against their midfield in a tense, physical game. With no explicit card odds quoted, bettors can look for player-card or team-card markets, using the main match-winner prices as a guide to overall market balance (e.g. Wolves around 2.63 with Betfair and Burnley around 2.45–2.52).

How to Watch Burnley vs Wolves

Broadcast coverage varies by region. General guide:

  • Spain: Movistar LaLiga
  • UK: Premier Sports
  • Australia: beIN Sports
  • India: FanCode
  • MENA: beIN Sports
  • South America: ESPN / Disney+
  • Africa: SuperSport

Odds are accurate at the time of writing and subject to change. Please gamble responsibly.

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