Alaves vs Rayo Vallecano Prediction: Key Stats and Betting Tips

Alaves host Rayo Vallecano at Estadio Mendizorrotza on 23 May 2026 in the final round of the La Liga regular season. With only four points separating the sides and mid-table positions at stake, this has all the ingredients of a tight, tactical encounter rather than a dead rubber.

The season record shows Alaves in 14th on 43 points, while Rayo Vallecano sit 8th with 47 points. The hosts have built their campaign on solid home form, whereas Rayo’s stronger work has largely come in Vallecas. For those looking at Alaves vs Rayo Vallecano predictions and betting tips, the balance between Alaves’ home strength and Rayo’s superior league position is the central storyline.

Recent head-to-head meetings have been fiercely contested across both La Liga and the Copa del Rey, with neither side able to dominate for long. That makes this clash particularly intriguing for fans studying Alaves vs Rayo Vallecano head-to-head trends going into the final day.

Alaves vs Rayo Vallecano Key Stats

• Alaves are 14th with 43 points from 37 matches, scoring 43 and conceding 54 in La Liga.
• Across the last five meetings listed, both teams have two wins each and one draw, with the most recent at Estadio Mendizorrotza on 14 January 2026 ending Alaves 2-0 Rayo Vallecano in the Copa del Rey Round of 16.
• Alaves average 1.2 goals scored and 1.5 conceded per league game, while Rayo Vallecano average 1.1 scored and 1.2 conceded.

Alaves vs Rayo Vallecano — Tale of the Tape

• Position: 14 vs 8
• Points: 43 vs 47
• Goals For: 43 vs 39
• Goals Against: 54 vs 43
• Clean Sheets: Alaves 5 vs Rayo Vallecano 12

Alaves come into the final round having taken 43 points from 37 league matches, with 11 wins, 10 draws and 16 defeats. They have scored 43 and conceded 54, leaving them with a negative goal difference of -11. Their home record is respectable: 7 wins, 6 draws and only 5 losses at Estadio Mendizorrotza, with 24 goals scored and 23 conceded.

Rayo Vallecano’s 47 points from 37 games (11 wins, 14 draws, 12 defeats) underline their solidity, especially at home. They have scored 39 and conceded 43 overall, with a goal difference of -4. At Vallecas they have been extremely tough to beat (7 wins, 10 draws, 2 losses), but away from home they mirror Alaves’ inconsistency: 4 wins, 4 draws and 10 defeats, scoring 15 and conceding 28. The numbers point to a narrow edge for Rayo over the full campaign, but Alaves’ home strength helps level the playing field.

Alaves vs Rayo Vallecano Key Matchups

Toni Martínez vs Jorge de Frutos

Toni Martínez has been Alaves’ standout attacking threat. Across 36 appearances (31 starts, 2,635 minutes), he has scored 13 goals and provided 3 assists. He has taken 74 shots with 34 on target, showing he is heavily involved in finishing moves, while also contributing 24 key passes from 653 total passes. His physical presence is reflected in 495 duels contested and 251 won, underlining his importance as both a focal point and a hard-working forward.

Jorge de Frutos is Rayo Vallecano’s main goal threat. In 35 appearances (31 starts, 2,438 minutes), he has 10 goals and 1 assist. He has produced 49 shots with 28 on target and 30 key passes from 387 total passes, combining goal scoring with creative output. His 57 dribble attempts with 26 successful and 261 duels (111 won) show he is central to Rayo’s attacking transitions. This duel between Martínez’s penalty-box power and de Frutos’ mobility and directness could decide where the goals come from.

Antonio Blanco vs Isi Palazón

Antonio Blanco anchors the Alaves midfield and is one of their most influential players. He has started 35 matches, playing 3,026 minutes, with 2 goals and 3 assists. His passing volume is huge: 1,794 total passes with 22 key passes and an 85% accuracy rate. Defensively he is a force, with 93 tackles, 11 blocks and 53 interceptions, plus 399 duels contested and 189 won. His 9 yellow cards underline how often he is involved in breaking up play.

Isi Palazón is both a creative hub and a disciplinary risk for Rayo. In 31 appearances (27 starts, 2,262 minutes), he has 3 goals and 3 assists, taking 37 shots (16 on target) and delivering 39 key passes from 871 total passes at 82% accuracy. He has attempted 48 dribbles with 23 successes and drawn 51 fouls, but he also has 10 yellow cards and 1 red. Blanco’s job will be to contain Isi’s influence between the lines while avoiding dangerous fouls, making this a pivotal midfield battle.

Head-to-Head: Last Meetings

The recent head-to-head record is finely balanced, with both sides enjoying spells of dominance and several low-scoring encounters. Across the last five meetings listed below, each team has two wins and there has been one draw.

• 14 January 2026: Alaves 2-0 Rayo Vallecano (Copa del Rey)
• 26 October 2025: Rayo Vallecano 1-0 Alaves (La Liga)
• 29 March 2025: Alaves 0-2 Rayo Vallecano (La Liga)
• 26 October 2024: Rayo Vallecano 1-0 Alaves (La Liga)
• 10 March 2024: Alaves 1-0 Rayo Vallecano (La Liga)

Alaves vs Rayo Vallecano Prediction

Analysis points to a very tight contest. Alaves’ league form string of “WWDLW” shows three wins in their last five, and their home record is solid. Rayo Vallecano’s “WDDWD” indicates they are hard to beat, though their away numbers over the full campaign are weaker. The head-to-head pattern at Mendizorrotza has seen Alaves win the last two home meetings in all competitions, both without conceding.

The prediction metrics slightly favour Alaves with a 35% home win probability and 35% for the draw, against 30% for an away win, and the advice leans towards “Alaves or draw”. Both teams’ goal averages (Alaves 1.2 scored, 1.5 conceded; Rayo 1.1 scored, 1.2 conceded) and the under/over profiles suggest a game with limited scoring chances. With no explicit goal-line prediction provided, and the winner indication pointing to Alaves avoiding defeat, a low-scoring stalemate fits the numbers.

Predicted Score: Alaves 1-1 Rayo Vallecano

Alaves League Form

WWDLW

Rayo Vallecano League Form

WDDWD

Alaves Possible Starting Lineup

Sivera; N. Tenaglia, Jon Pacheco, Jonny, Víctor Parada; Antonio Blanco, Guevara, Jon Guridi, Carles Aleñá; Toni Martínez, L. Boyé.

Alaves have regularly used back-four systems such as 4-4-2 and 4-1-4-1, and the personnel listed reflect their key contributors. Antonio Blanco is likely to sit at the base of midfield, with Jon Guridi and Carles Aleñá offering progression. Up front, the pairing of Toni Martínez and L. Boyé brings a blend of aerial presence, finishing and ball-carrying, well suited to exploiting Rayo’s less convincing away defensive record.

Rayo Vallecano Possible Starting Lineup

Dani Cárdenas; A. Rațiu, Luiz Felipe, N. Mendy, A. Espino; P. Ciss, Unai López; Isi Palazón, Gumbau, Jorge de Frutos; Carlos Martín.

Rayo Vallecano have favoured a 4-2-3-1 shape, and this projected XI leans on their most influential figures. P. Ciss and Unai López can control possession in midfield, while Isi Palazón and Jorge de Frutos operate as the main creative and goal threats in the attacking band. At the back, N. Mendy and A. Rațiu combine defensive aggression with forward runs, but their high involvement also carries card risk that Alaves may try to exploit.

Alaves Team News

No significant absences reported.

Rayo Vallecano Team News

No significant absences reported.

Injuries & Suspensions

Alaves:

• None reported.

Rayo Vallecano:

• None reported.

Betting Tips: Alaves vs Rayo Vallecano

Exactly 3 distinct tips from different markets:

• Result Tip: Double chance Alaves or Draw. The prediction metrics give Alaves and the draw 35% each versus 30% for Rayo, and Alaves have been stronger at home than Rayo away. Several bookmakers make Alaves slight favourites, with home win odds around 2.30 at Bet365 and 2.38 at Pinnacle, while the draw is as high as 3.60 with 1xBet. Combining those probabilities, backing Alaves not to lose offers a pragmatic angle.
• Goals Tip: Under 2.5 goals. Both sides average close to one goal scored per match and have more unders than overs at higher goal thresholds. Recent head-to-heads have produced many low-scoring games, including 1-0 and 2-0 scorelines. With the match winner market showing tight prices (for example, 2.30 home, 3.50 draw, 2.90 away at Bet365), the goal lines are likely set cautiously, making an under-leaning approach consistent with the statistical profile.
• Value Tip: Card-related angle involving Isi Palazón or Antonio Blanco. Isi has accumulated 10 yellow cards and 1 red in 31 appearances, while Antonio Blanco has 9 yellows in 35 games, both heavily involved in duels and fouls. In a balanced final-day contest, their aggressive styles could offer value in player card markets. With the main 1X2 odds tightly clustered (for example, 2.33 home, 3.54 draw, 3.12 away at Marathonbet), derivative markets like cards may provide better value than the match result.

How to Watch Alaves vs Rayo Vallecano

Broadcast coverage varies by region. General guide:

• Spain: Movistar LaLiga
• UK: Premier Sports
• Australia: beIN Sports
• India: FanCode
• MENA: beIN Sports
• South America: ESPN / Disney+
• Africa: SuperSport

Odds are accurate at the time of writing and subject to change. Please gamble responsibly.