Portugal Begins UEFA Nations League Defense Against Wales
Portugal open the defence of their UEFA Nations League crown on Thursday night with a home tie against Wales, a fixture that arrives with a new man on the touchline and a very familiar figure still leading the line.
The holders, and the competition’s most decorated nation with titles in 2019 and 2025, step into a new chapter under Jorge Jesus. The 70-year-old took over on July 10 after Roberto Martinez’s exit in the wake of the 2026 World Cup, and his first competitive game carries little margin for error in a demanding League A, Group 4.
New era, same expectations
Portugal’s last major outing ended in frustration. Knocked out in the last 16 of the World Cup by eventual champions Spain, a 1-0 defeat to La Roja brought their first loss since November 2025 and abruptly halted a long unbeaten run.
Yet this is a team that knows how to reset quickly. They won the inaugural Nations League in 2018-19, edging Netherlands 1-0 in the final, then reclaimed the trophy in 2024-25 after a penalty shootout victory over Spain. No country has shaped the identity of this competition more.
Jesus inherits a side expected to go deep again. Group 4 pits Portugal against Wales, Denmark and Norway, home and away, with a quarter-final place the minimum target. After this opener, Portugal travel to Norway before October brings Denmark away and Norway at home. The schedule is sharp. So are the expectations.
Ronaldo still at the heart of it
The biggest question around this squad lingered over one man. It has been answered.
Cristiano Ronaldo, now 41, has been named in Jesus’s first squad and is set to start, chasing yet more history on a tally that already stands at 146 international goals. His future with the national team looked uncertain after the Spain defeat at the World Cup, but he remains central to the plan, not a ceremonial presence.
There should be no great surprises elsewhere. Diogo Costa is in line to start in goal. In midfield, Vitinha, Joao Neves and Bruno Fernandes are expected to form the core, a blend of control, energy and creativity. Out wide, Pedro Neto and Joao Felix offer pace and invention behind Ronaldo.
Portugal’s likely XI: Costa; Cancelo, Dias, Veiga, Mendes; Vitinha, J Neves; Neto, Fernandes, Felix; Ronaldo.
It is a line-up built to dominate the ball and punish any looseness in transition.
Wales return to the top tier, but limping
Wales arrive from a very different place.
They missed out on the 2026 World Cup, falling to Bosnia-Herzegovina in the playoff semi-finals in March, a bruising setback that cut short their tournament ambitions. Since then, Craig Bellamy’s side have been searching for rhythm: draws against Northern Ireland and Ghana in friendlies offered some encouragement, but a 2-1 defeat to Romania last time out underlined how much work remains.
Yet the Nations League has been kinder to them. Promoted from League B in 2024-25, Wales are back in League A with a respectable record in the competition: 10 wins, five draws and seven defeats from 22 matches. They know how to scrap their way through this format.
The calendar is unforgiving. After Portugal, Wales face Denmark away on September 27, then Norway at home on October 1 and Denmark at home on October 4. Survival at this level will depend on how quickly Bellamy can mould a coherent side in the face of mounting absences.
Triple injury blow for Bellamy
Wales do not just face the European champions. They do so shorthanded.
Harry Wilson, Nathan Broadhead and Karl Darlow have all withdrawn through injury, forcing late changes to the squad. Leicester City goalkeeper David Cornell, Huddersfield Town forward Joe Taylor and Reading midfielder Charlie Savage have been drafted in as replacements.
They join a group already missing Joe Rodon, Dylan Lawlor, Rubin Colwill and Isaak Davies. Key options, stripped away.
Bellamy is expected to lean heavily on his remaining attacking talent. Daniel James, David Brooks and Brennan Johnson are all set to start in the final third, with James potentially operating through the middle to stretch Portugal’s back line with his pace.
Wales’ likely XI: Ward; N Williams, Cabango, Norrington-Davies, Dasilva; Ampadu, J James; Brooks, Thomas, Johnson; D James.
It is a team built on industry and counter-attacking threat, but one that will need to withstand long spells without the ball.
History, form and the weight of the occasion
The historical ledger between these nations is thin but telling. They have met only four times. Wales have just one win, a friendly back in May 1951. The only competitive clash came in the semi-finals of Euro 2016, when Portugal won 2-0 thanks to goals from Cristiano Ronaldo and Nani, a night that propelled them towards their first major international title.
Recent form leans the same way. Portugal’s record across their last six matches reads: W, D, W, D, W, L. Wales’ line of results is more uneven: W, W, L, D, D, L.
The contrast is stark: a reigning Nations League champion with depth and continuity, against a side reshaping itself after World Cup heartbreak and now stripped of several important names.
Prediction
With Ronaldo still driving the narrative, a settled spine, and the comfort of home, Portugal carry a clear edge. Wales will fight, they always do, and they still have enough in the likes of Johnson, James and Brooks to trouble any defence on the break.
But with so many absentees and Portugal’s quality spread across every line, the balance tilts heavily towards the champions.
Prediction: Portugal 3-1 Wales.
If Jorge Jesus’s reign starts with the statement performance many expect, the question will not be whether Portugal can get out of this group – but who, if anyone, can stop them taking aim at a third Nations League crown.
