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Parma vs Sassuolo Prediction: Key Stats and Betting Tips

Parma round off their Serie A campaign with a home clash against Sassuolo at Stadio Ennio Tardini on 24 May 2026. With both sides safely in mid-table, this final-day fixture is about pride, prize money and momentum rather than survival or Europe. The venue has seen mixed fortunes for the hosts this year, and they will be eager to sign off in front of their own fans with a positive result.

The league table underlines the differing profiles of these two sides. Parma sit 13th with 42 points from 37 matches, built on a stubborn but goal-shy approach. Sassuolo, 11th on 49 points, have been far more expansive in attack but leak goals at the other end. For anyone searching for Parma vs Sassuolo prediction angles or betting tips on this Serie A finale, the contrast in styles – Parma’s low-scoring grind versus Sassuolo’s more open, attacking games – is a key starting point.

There is also a recent head-to-head edge to consider. The reverse league fixture on 3 January 2026 ended 1-1 at MAPEI Stadium – Città del Tricolore, while past meetings at Ennio Tardini have often produced decisive results rather than stalemates. With both teams’ form lines patchy, this looks a balanced matchup where details in both boxes and set-piece execution could swing the outcome.

Parma vs Sassuolo Key Stats

  • Parma are 13th in Serie A with 42 points, scoring just 27 goals and conceding 46 across 37 matches.
  • The last Serie A meeting between the sides on 3 January 2026 finished Sassuolo 1-1 Parma at MAPEI Stadium – Città del Tricolore.
  • Parma’s league matches are heavily low-scoring: only 6 of 37 have gone over 1.5 goals, and none have gone over 2.5, while Sassuolo average 1.2 goals scored and 1.3 conceded per game.

Parma vs Sassuolo — Tale of the Tape

  • Position: 13 vs 11
  • Points: 42 vs 49
  • Goals For: 27 vs 46
  • Goals Against: 46 vs 49
  • Clean Sheets: Parma 12 vs Sassuolo 8

The season record shows Parma have relied on defensive resilience to stay clear of trouble. They have 10 wins, 12 draws and 15 defeats from 37 games, but their 27 goals scored is among the lowest in the division. A goal difference of -19 underlines how fine their margins have been, especially at Ennio Tardini, where they have won 4, drawn 6 and lost 8 with just 15 goals scored and 25 conceded.

Sassuolo’s campaign has been more volatile. With 14 wins, 7 draws and 16 defeats, they have both scored and conceded freely. Their 46 goals for and 49 against point to a side that plays on the front foot but leaves space in behind. Away from home, they have 5 wins, 5 draws and 8 losses (21 scored, 23 conceded), suggesting they are competitive on their travels but far from watertight.

Parma vs Sassuolo Key Matchups

Mateo Pellegrino vs Andrea Pinamonti

Parma’s main attacking reference is Mateo Pellegrino. The Argentine forward has 8 goals and 1 assist in 36 Serie A appearances, starting 33 times and logging 2,901 minutes. He has taken 50 shots with 21 on target and drawn 67 fouls, underlining his role as a physical focal point. His duel numbers (525 contested, 224 won) show how often he is involved in direct battles with defenders.

At the other end, Andrea Pinamonti leads Sassuolo’s scoring charts with 9 goals and 3 assists in 35 appearances. He has 57 shots (30 on target) and is also active in duels (250 contested, 97 won). Pinamonti’s movement and finishing will test a Parma defence that has conceded 25 goals at home, while Pellegrino’s ability to hold up play and win fouls could be crucial in relieving pressure and generating set-piece chances.

Domenico Berardi vs Mariano Troilo

Domenico Berardi remains Sassuolo’s creative heartbeat. In 25 league appearances, he has produced 8 goals and 4 assists, with 33 shots (20 on target) and 32 key passes. His passing volume (622 total, 76% accuracy) and contribution in both phases – 26 tackles and 24 interceptions – make him a complete attacking outlet drifting into dangerous pockets.

Mariano Troilo is a key defensive figure for Parma. The defender has 20 appearances (17 starts), with 1 goal and an impressive passing accuracy of 89% from 792 passes. Defensively, he has 25 tackles, 18 blocks and 16 interceptions, but also a combative edge that has brought 7 yellow cards, 1 yellow-red and 1 straight red. Containing Berardi without overstepping the disciplinary line will be a major test for Troilo and a decisive subplot in this contest.

Head-to-Head: Last Meetings

Recent meetings between Parma and Sassuolo have been tight, with a mix of league and friendly encounters. Across the last five clashes listed below, there have been two wins for Sassuolo, two for Parma and one draw.

  • 3 January 2026: Sassuolo 1-1 Parma (Serie A)
  • 2 August 2023: Parma 1-0 Sassuolo (Friendlies Clubs)
  • 1 August 2021: Parma 0-3 Sassuolo (Friendlies Clubs)
  • 16 May 2021: Parma 1-3 Sassuolo (Serie A)
  • 17 January 2021: Sassuolo 1-1 Parma (Serie A)

Parma vs Sassuolo Prediction

Analysis points to a stylistic clash. Parma’s league profile is that of a low-scoring, defensively organised side: they average 0.7 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per game, with only 6 of their 37 matches going over 1.5 goals. Sassuolo, by contrast, average 1.2 goals scored and 1.3 conceded, with more attacking threat but a looser back line. The comparison metrics lean towards the visitors, with Sassuolo ahead in form, attack and overall rating, and the prediction advice favouring a double chance on draw or Sassuolo.

Given the 45% probabilities assigned to both draw and away win, and just 10% for a Parma victory, the expectation is that Sassuolo avoid defeat. However, Parma’s 12 clean sheets and their home record of keeping games tight suggest this may not turn into a high-scoring shootout. A cautious, cagey contest with limited clear chances fits both the statistical under/over profile and recent Serie A meetings.

Predicted Score: Parma 0-1 Sassuolo

Parma League Form

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Sassuolo League Form

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Parma Possible Starting Lineup

G. Astaldi; A. Circati, M. Troilo, L. Valenti, E. Valeri; Adrián Bernabé, N. Estévez, G. Oristanio, O. Sørensen; Gabriel Strefezza, Mateo Pellegrino.

Parma have alternated between back-three and back-four systems, but the presence of ball-playing defenders like Troilo and Valenti and energetic full-back Valeri suggests they can build from deep. In midfield, Adrián Bernabé and N. Estévez provide technical quality, while G. Oristanio and O. Sørensen offer legs and pressing. Up front, Gabriel Strefezza’s wide threat and Pellegrino’s physical presence give them a direct outlet, though their season-long average of 0.7 goals per game hints they may again prioritise structure over risk.

Sassuolo Possible Starting Lineup

S. Turati; Fali Candé, S. Walukiewicz, J. Idzes, J. Doig; N. Matić, K. Thorstvedt, A. Vranckx; A. Laurienté, D. Berardi, A. Pinamonti.

Sassuolo have been wedded to a 4-3-3 for most of the campaign, and the personnel available point to another aggressive setup. N. Matić anchors midfield with his passing range and defensive reading, while K. Thorstvedt adds box-to-box energy and goal threat. Out wide, A. Laurienté and D. Berardi are both capable of both scoring and creating, feeding central striker Pinamonti. This front line underpins Sassuolo’s higher attacking averages but also means their full-backs and midfield must remain disciplined to avoid being exposed in transition.

Parma Team News

No significant absences reported.

Sassuolo Team News

No significant absences reported.

Injuries & Suspensions

Parma:

  • None reported.

Sassuolo:

  • None reported.

Betting Tips: Parma vs Sassuolo

Exactly 3 distinct tips from different markets:

  • Result Tip: Back Sassuolo double chance (draw or away). With Parma given only a 10% implied chance of victory and both draw and away win rated at 45%, the safer angle is siding against a home win. Several bookmakers price Sassuolo narrowly shorter than Parma, with away odds around 2.50 at William Hill and 2.55 at Bet365, reflecting their stronger attack and marginally better form.
  • Goals Tip: Under 2.5 goals. Parma’s season profile is extremely low-scoring, with 31 of 37 league matches staying under 1.5 goals and none going over 2.5, while Sassuolo’s away games average just over 2.4 total goals (21 for, 23 against in 18). The recent Serie A head-to-heads (1-1, 1-3, 1-1) and Parma’s 12 clean sheets support a tight contest. Look for under-goals prices in conjunction with the match odds from firms such as Bet365 or Pinnacle.
  • Value Tip: Andrea Pinamonti to score anytime. Pinamonti is Sassuolo’s top scorer with 9 goals and also has 3 assists, taking 57 shots across the campaign. His volume of attempts and central role in a 4-3-3 make him a logical candidate to break down a deep Parma block. While specific scorer odds are not listed here, combining a Pinamonti goal with the away side on the double chance could offer an attractive builder alongside match-winner prices like 2.69 at Pinnacle or 2.71 at 1xBet for Sassuolo.

How to Watch Parma vs Sassuolo

Broadcast coverage varies by region. General guide:

  • Spain: Movistar LaLiga
  • UK: Premier Sports
  • Australia: beIN Sports
  • India: FanCode
  • MENA: beIN Sports
  • South America: ESPN / Disney+
  • Africa: SuperSport

Odds are accurate at the time of writing and subject to change. Please gamble responsibly.

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