Cape Verde's Stunning World Cup Journey: Underdogs Defying Predictions
Cape Verde keep tearing up the script. After holding Spain, they have now stood firm against Uruguay too, and the World Cup underdogs are fast becoming the story the predictors cannot quite catch.
The numbers tell their own tale. When Cape Verde faced Spain, 99.65% of users on the BBC's new predictor game backed them to lose. Against Uruguay, that figure dropped, but only to 83%. The shock factor is fading, yet the results keep coming. The game is starting to respect them more quickly than the algorithms and the armchair experts.
Not that the users are doing badly. Across the second round of 24 group matches, they outperformed both BBC Sport predictions expert Chris Sutton and AI. Sutton improved on his first-round return, jumping from 12 correct results to 14. The AI model – powered by Microsoft Copilot Chat and simply asked to “predict the results of the second round of World Cup group games” – also sharpened up, moving from 13 to 15 out of 24.
The crowd, though, found another gear. From 13 correct in the opening set of fixtures to 18 this time. A serious upswing, and a reminder that collective instinct can still outplay both punditry and code.
Now comes the final round of group games, where prediction turns into high-wire work. Scotland face Brazil. England meet Panama. Every call carries a consequence.
Chris Sutton has committed to forecasting all 104 matches at this World Cup and has gone further, laying out how he expects all 12 groups to finish. The users, via the BBC’s predictor game, can do the same in their own way: pick a winner in every match, or stick their necks out for a draw, one fixture at a time.
And the next batch of fixtures offers a mix of dead rubbers, jeopardy, and star-management dilemmas.
Mexico v Czech Republic – rotation against desperation
Mexico City, Thursday 25 June, 02:00 BST. Estadio Azteca under the lights, and Mexico already through as group winners. Whatever happens here, they will be in the last 32, and that security is likely to bring sweeping changes to their starting XI.
That is the opening the Czech Republic have been waiting for. They need a win to have any chance of sneaking through, and a rotated Mexico side might just leave the door ajar. But the setting matters. Mexico are back at the Azteca, the stadium where they thumped South Africa and rode the noise of their own people.
As Sutton’s 5 Live commentary partner Alistair Bruce-Ball put it to him, this is about pride as much as position. Mexico will want to do their country proud, even with the job already done. The altitude, the atmosphere, the familiarity of home – none of that favours the Czechs.
Sutton still leans towards a twist: Mexico 0-1 Czech Republic.
The AI sees goals for both sides but the same outcome: Mexico 1-2 Czech Republic.
Argentina v Jordan – Messi wrapped in cotton wool
Dallas, Sunday 28 June, 03:00. Argentina have already wrapped up their group. The real battle now is not about progression but preservation.
Sutton expects changes, and one name looms largest: Lionel Messi. He believes Argentina will leave their captain out. Rest now, reward later. The logic is clear – keeping Messi fresh should boost Argentina’s chances of lifting the trophy – but it dents his hopes of the Golden Boot and of stretching his record as the World Cup’s all-time leading scorer.
His fans will not like it. They rarely do when he is anywhere but on the pitch. Yet the calculation is ruthless and simple: protect the player, protect the dream.
On the grass, Sutton sees a mismatch regardless. Messi or no Messi, he does not think Jordan can live with Argentina in front of goal.
His call is emphatic: Jordan 0-3 Argentina.
The AI lands in exactly the same place: 0-3.
Portugal v Colombia – Ronaldo scores, but is it enough?
Miami, Sunday 28 June, 00:30. This one carries a different kind of tension. Portugal need a win to top the group. Nothing else will do.
Sutton watched them dismantle Uzbekistan in their previous outing, a performance full of swagger and goals. Colombia, though, represent a far stiffer test. This is not a game to be cruised through; it is one to be managed under pressure.
He senses a jolt to the script and backs Colombia to take something. Not the win, but a draw that would sting Portugal’s ambitions. In his vision of the night, Cristiano Ronaldo still dominates the scoring, grabbing both of Portugal’s goals, but the defensive side of the equation lets them down.
Sutton’s prediction: Portugal 2-2 Colombia.
The AI is less forgiving, and tips Portugal to edge it 2-1.
Ronaldo’s story, of course, stretches beyond one group-stage night. Sutton jokes that the forward will carry on until the 2040 World Cup. With Ronaldo, you never quite rule anything out.
England v Panama – Tuchel under scrutiny
New York, Saturday 27 June, 22:00. England arrive with questions hanging over them and a manager whose words suddenly carry a different weight.
Thomas Tuchel’s half-time team talk against Ghana did not land. Against Croatia, he drew praise for his intervention in the dressing room as England surged to an impressive win. Against Ghana, the magic touch deserted him. Same manager, different outcome, and the contrast has sharpened the focus on his decisions.
He is expected to tweak his side, but not overhaul it. England need to win. Harry Kane will lead the line again, but the flanks could change. Sutton anticipates Bukayo Saka and Marcus Rashford coming in on the wings, fresh legs and familiar threats.
He makes no secret of his preference. He wants Saka to start instead of Noni Madueke, and he is adamant that Nico O’Reilly should come in at left-back ahead of Djed Spence, calling O’Reilly the better all-round footballer.
Panama have been stubborn so far, losing 1-0 in both of their games. Tight, organised, awkward. Yet Sutton does not see this one staying close. He expects Kane to respond after that big late miss against Ghana and to “be back in the goals” against a side that has held firm but not yet been truly punished.
His forecast is clear: Panama 0-3 England.
The AI mirrors him exactly: 0-3.
The predictors, the pundit and the AI are locked in now, each staking out their view of how this World Cup’s final group acts will unfold. The only question left is the one Cape Verde have been asking from the start: whose script survives contact with the chaos of the tournament?
