Burnley vs Wolves: Final Premier League Showdown
Burnley host Wolves at Turf Moor on 24 May 2026 in the final Premier League round, with both clubs already relegated but still playing for pride and prize-money positions. Burnley come in 19th with 21 points (4-9-24, goals 37-74), Wolves are 20th with 19 points (3-10-24, goals 26-67). The table confirms two of the division’s weakest attacks and defences, which explains why the prediction model expects a low-scoring, tight encounter.
Over the last five league matches, Burnley’s overall form index is 7%, with 4 goals scored and 11 conceded (0.8 for, 2.2 against per game). Wolves are marginally better with a 13% form index, but still only 2 goals scored and 9 conceded in their last five (0.4 for, 1.8 against). The model’s comparison section rates Wolves higher on recent form (67% vs 33%) and slightly better defensively (55% vs 45%), while Burnley edge the attacking comparison (67% vs 33%). However, when you zoom out to the full league campaign, Wolves’ attacking numbers are worse: 26 goals in 37 matches (0.7 per game) against Burnley’s 37 in 37 (1.0 per game).
Home and Away Performance
Home/away splits add an important betting angle. Burnley at Turf Moor: 2-6-10, 17 scored and 28 conceded. Wolves away: 0-5-13, just 7 scored and 33 conceded. Wolves have not won a single away league game and average only 0.4 goals per away match. That aligns strongly with the prediction engine’s goals line of under 1.5 for both sides (“home: -1.5, away: -1.5”), signalling that neither attack is trusted to produce multiple goals here.
Head-to-Head Data
Head-to-head data, excluding friendlies, shows a balanced and often low-scoring pattern that supports a cautious view on goals. In the Premier League on 26 October 2025 at Molineux Stadium, Wolves lost 2-3 at home to Burnley. Earlier, in the League Cup on 28 August 2024 at Molineux Stadium, Wolves beat Burnley 2-0. At Turf Moor on 2 April 2024 in the Premier League, the sides drew 1-1. On 5 December 2023 at Molineux Stadium in the Premier League, Wolves won 1-0. Going further back in Premier League play: on 24 April 2022 at Turf Moor, Burnley won 1-0; on 1 December 2021 at Molineux Stadium it finished 0-0; on 25 April 2021 at Molineux Stadium Burnley won 4-0; on 21 December 2020 at Turf Moor Burnley won 2-1; and on 15 July 2020 at Turf Moor it ended 1-1. The only friendly listed, a 3-0 Wolves win at Sir Jack Hayward Training Ground on 9 July 2022, should not be mixed with competitive data. Overall, these competitive fixtures frequently land in the 0–2 goal range, with just the odd higher-scoring outlier (4-0, 3-2).
Prediction Model Output
The prediction model’s core output is clear: it designates Wolves as the “winner” side with the comment “Win or draw” and provides an advice of “Double chance : draw or Wolves”. Implied probabilities from the model are 10% home, 45% draw, 45% away – heavily skewed against a Burnley win despite home advantage and slightly better season-long scoring.
Market odds, however, are more balanced. Across major bookmakers, Burnley are roughly 2.45–2.56, Wolves 2.60–2.84, draw 3.40–3.66. Pinnacle, for instance, posts 2.49 home, 3.66 draw, 2.79 away; Bet365 is 2.50–3.40–2.75. The market prices this as almost a coin flip between the sides with a modest premium on the draw, while the model’s comparison section gives Wolves a slight overall edge (total index 54.2% vs 45.8%).
From a value perspective, the best alignment with the official prediction data is on the double chance in favour of Wolves. The model explicitly recommends “Double chance : draw or Wolves”, supported by Wolves’ edge in form metrics and Burnley’s struggling tag (form 7% over the last five, 4-9-24 overall). Given Wolves’ dreadful away record, backing the straight away win at around 2.75–2.84 is riskier than the model suggests, but the double chance draw-or-Wolves angle fits both the algorithmic output and the H2H tendency toward draws and narrow margins.
Prediction: a low-scoring match, with the most data-consistent betting line being Double chance: draw or Wolves, and a correct-score lean around 0-0 or 1-1.
