Gameweek 38: Chasing Points in FPL Chaos

By the time you reach the final Sunday of an FPL season, logic starts to loosen. Ranks are on the line, mini-leagues are on edge, and every manager with a 10, 20 or 30-point gap to close is looking for that one punt that lands.

Rotation fear is everywhere this week. Let’s strip it back.

The only real jeopardy left sits around the European spots – sixth to eighth – and the relegation scrap involving West Ham United and Tottenham Hotspur. That immediately pulls Liverpool, Bournemouth, Brighton and Hove Albion, Chelsea, Sunderland, Brentford, West Ham and Spurs into focus. Those clubs still have something tangible on the table, so widespread rotation from them looks unlikely.

That doesn’t automatically make them the best hunting ground for points. When both sides are “on the beach”, games can open up and FPL hauls can come from nowhere. What it does mean, though, is that assets from those sides are broadly expected to start. In Gameweek 38, that certainty has value of its own.

From there, the conversation inevitably swings to the two clubs who dominate most squads.

Arsenal: Star Names, Nagging Doubts

Mikel Arteta kept his cards close in his press conference, but training ground clues told their own story. David Raya, Bukayo Saka and William Saliba all worked individually, away from the main group on Thursday. All three could still start on Sunday. Yet of that trio, Saka and Saliba remain the likeliest candidates for a rest.

There’s a clear, simple logic with Saka. Noni Madueke did not get on the pitch against Burnley. Palace offers a chance to hand Madueke meaningful minutes, protect Saka, and still keep the England winger in reserve for a late cameo if needed. It fits the pattern of a manager managing minutes, not chasing records.

Raya is different. The Golden Glove is already in his pocket, but he is still chasing the club record for most clean sheets in a single season by an Arsenal goalkeeper. That kind of milestone often keeps a keeper on the team sheet.

Up front, nothing is nailed. Viktor Gyokeres might start, but Gabriel Jesus or even Kai Havertz could easily lead the line. Whichever way Arteta goes, it does not scream goal-fest. For FPL, the conclusion is brutal but clear: this is not the week to buy Arsenal attackers. If you have free transfers, moving them on is entirely reasonable. If you own both Saka and Gyokeres, Saka is the one to sell first.

Manchester City: Farewell, Noise and Risk

All eyes turn to Manchester City, and not just because of the title or the goals. This is likely to be Pep Guardiola’s final game in charge. At the time of writing, he has not officially confirmed it, but the expectation is that he will do so in his press conference. The atmosphere at the Etihad will be heavy with farewell energy, amplified by the opening of the new stand that adds 7,000 more voices to the crowd.

The squad will want to send him off in style. That usually means the big guns play.

Erling Haaland has a World Cup ahead of him this summer. On paper, that gives Guardiola every excuse to manage his minutes. In reality, this feels like a game he starts, with the possibility of an early substitution once the job is done. Phil Foden looks set to begin as well, which immediately casts doubt over Rayan Cherki’s minutes.

Nico O’Reilly is harder to read. His situation sits in the same grey area as Antoine Semenyo’s: both can feature, both can disappear into a cameo. The fixture itself, though, has the look of a high-scoring one. Villa are still riding the emotional high of their midweek Europa League win, and that can easily spill into a loose, open contest.

If you own Haaland and O’Reilly, there is a strong case to hold. Cherki and Semenyo are easier to sacrifice.

Villa, United, Liverpool: Who Can You Trust?

Aston Villa first. Expect rotation. Heavy rotation. That makes their players straightforward sells or bench options. Anyone still holding them at this point knows the score.

Manchester United offer more clarity at the top end of the pitch. Bruno Fernandes, Matheus Cunha and Bryan Mbeumo are all expected to start. Casemiro, as Michael Carrick has already confirmed, will miss out. Beyond that, United’s FPL relevance is thin; most managers are not heavily invested in their other assets.

Liverpool should go strong. Dominik Szoboszlai and Virgil van Dijk are expected to start, with Mohamed Salah likely in the XI as well, subject to Arne Slot’s press conference. On the final day, Salah always tempts the armband. This year is no different.

Elsewhere, Dominic Calvert-Lewin stands out as one of the few other highly owned options with a good chance of starting. He should lead the line.

Hits, Benches and the Art of Doing Less

This is the week when managers talk themselves into -4s and -8s on the basis of guesswork. That is where seasons go to die.

Taking hits purely to “beat rotation” is a dangerous game, especially when so many team leaks are likely to emerge ahead of the deadline. Use that information. Use your bench. Accept that Gameweek 38 always throws up chaos that no spreadsheet can forecast.

If you are going to be aggressive, do it with a clear plan, not blind panic.

Building the Differential Free Hit XI

For those on a Free Hit and chasing down rivals stacked with Arsenal and City players, the final day offers a different route: go around the heavy ownership and lean into the edges.

Defence

West Ham and Spurs stand out as the two defences worth targeting with a free transfer. Both have something real to play for, both can keep it tight, and both offer defenders with attacking threat.

Pedro Porro brings that familiar blend of forward runs and set-piece involvement. Konstantinos Mavropanos carries a significant threat from set plays. Either can turn a clean sheet into a double-digit haul.

John Stones is another intriguing pick. This is likely his final game for Manchester City, and that narrative often aligns with a start. If he is in the XI, he is exactly the sort of defender who can drift into midfield, collect bonus, and sneak an attacking return.

Midfield

Jack Hinshelwood sits quietly at the top of the midfield charts for big chances over the last six Gameweeks. With Casemiro rested, Brighton have a platform to attack, and Hinshelwood has the form to punish a weakened spine. On pure numbers and eye test, he is more than just a punt; he is a genuine captaincy contender. For some, he may even edge Salah.

Burnley’s meeting with Wolverhampton Wanderers has the feel of a game neither side wants to end bottom and both are happy to attack. Zian Flemming would have been the ideal option from that fixture, but with the forward slots already stacked, Jaidon Anthony steps in as the midfield alternative. He is cheap, direct and involved enough to justify the gamble.

Morgan Gibbs-White rounds out the midfield. Forest showed against United that their appetite for defending has evaporated, but on home turf they still carry a punch. Against a Bournemouth side ranked in the bottom five for expected goals conceded in away matches, Gibbs-White has room to create and score. He is the kind of player who can turn a free-flowing match into a personal showcase.

Forwards

Up front, the narrative and the numbers finally align.

Richarlison and Jarrod Bowen are both on penalties, both play 90 minutes, and both are central to their clubs’ hopes of staying up. These are players you want when the stakes rise. They will not be hooked early. They will take the crucial shots.

Alongside them, William Osula offers a sharper edge than his price suggests. He sits in the top three for expected goals over the last six Gameweeks, and with Marco Silva’s departure from Craven Cottage looming, that match has all the makings of a loose, emotional, high-scoring affair. Osula is the sort of name your rivals will not own – exactly what you want when chasing.

The curtain falls on the 2025/26 FPL season with one last, wild roll of the dice. The template has done its job for 37 weeks. Now it is about nerve, timing and a little bit of controlled recklessness.

Who will dare to rip up their City and Arsenal stacks, back the relegation fighters and the misfits, and steal a mini-league on the final day?