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CSKA Sofia vs Qarabag Prediction: Key Stats and Betting Tips

CSKA Sofia host Qarabag at National Stadium Vasil Levski in Sofia on 30 July 2026 in the second leg of their UEFA Europa League 2nd Qualifying Round tie. After a tight 0-0 draw in Baku a week earlier, this return fixture will decide who advances to the next round of qualifying.

Both clubs come into this clash unbeaten in the competition so far. CSKA Sofia have shown they can score freely at home but also concede, while Qarabag have paired solid attacking numbers with a flawless defensive record in Europe this season. With the tie finely poised and away goals no longer a factor, any win on the night will be enough to progress, making this one of the more intriguing UEFA Europa League qualifying predictions this week.

For fans and bettors looking at CSKA Sofia vs Qarabag betting tips, the market leans slightly towards the Azerbaijani champions, but the high draw probability and first-leg stalemate suggest another tight, tactical encounter in Sofia.

CSKA Sofia vs Qarabag Key Stats

  • In this UEFA Europa League campaign, CSKA Sofia are unbeaten across 3 matches with 2 wins and 1 draw, scoring 5 and conceding 3.
  • The most recent meeting on 23 July 2026 in Baku finished Qarabag 0-0 CSKA Sofia in the UEFA Europa League 2nd Qualifying Round first leg.
  • Qarabag’s Europa League tournament statistics show 6 goals scored and 0 conceded in 3 matches, with 3 clean sheets.

CSKA Sofia vs Qarabag — Tale of the Tape

  • Position: Not available vs Not available
  • Points: Not available vs Not available
  • Goals For (tournament stats): 5 (CSKA Sofia) vs 6 (Qarabag)
  • Goals Against (tournament stats): 3 (CSKA Sofia) vs 0 (Qarabag)
  • Clean Sheets (tournament statistics): 1 (CSKA Sofia) vs 3 (Qarabag)

Standings data for the qualifying phase are not listed, but the tournament statistics paint a clear picture. CSKA Sofia have been positive going forward, averaging 1.7 goals per game across 3 Europa League fixtures, yet they have allowed 1.0 goal per match and have just 1 clean sheet.

Qarabag, by contrast, have been close to perfect at the back. Across their 3 Europa League games they have not conceded a single goal, while scoring an average of 2.0 per match. Their biggest wins include 3-0 at home and 0-3 away, underlining their ability to control ties both in Baku and on the road. On current evidence, Qarabag look the more balanced side, with a stronger defensive platform.

CSKA Sofia vs Qarabag Key Matchups

CSKA Sofia attack vs Qarabag defence

Without individual scorer data, the battle is best framed collectively. CSKA Sofia’s Europa League attack has produced 5 goals in 3 matches, with an eye-catching 3.0 goals per game at home. Their biggest win is a 3-2 home result, highlighting both their firepower and vulnerability in open games. They spread their goals fairly evenly across the 16–75 minute window, suggesting they can threaten throughout the match rather than relying on fast starts or late surges.

They now face a Qarabag defence that has been flawless in Europe this season. Qarabag have played 3 Europa League fixtures, kept 3 clean sheets and conceded 0 goals, with an average of 0.0 goals against both home and away. Their defensive index in the comparison block sits at a dominant 100 versus CSKA’s 0, underlining how much more robust they have been. The outcome of this tie may hinge on whether CSKA can finally break down a back line that has not yet been breached.

Midfield control: CSKA Sofia structure vs Qarabag’s 4-2-3-1

CSKA Sofia have used tactical variety in Europe, lining up in 4-3-1-2, 3-5-2 and 4-4-2 across their 3 matches. That flexibility allows them to adjust between more aggressive, two-striker systems and a more compact midfield block. It has helped them maintain an unbeaten run (2 wins, 1 draw) and a longest winning streak of 2 games.

Qarabag, meanwhile, have been consistent with a 4-2-3-1 formation in all 3 Europa League outings. That stability has underpinned their perfect defensive record and their ability to transition quickly, reflected in 6 goals scored and a biggest away win of 0-3. The midfield double pivot in 4-2-3-1 should give Qarabag a structural edge in controlling tempo, especially against a CSKA side that may need to commit numbers forward at home.

Head-to-Head: Last Meetings

These sides are becoming familiar opponents, with recent meetings in both European competition and friendlies. The pattern has largely favoured Qarabag, though the latest clash ended level.

  • 23 July 2026: Qarabag 0-0 CSKA Sofia (UEFA Europa League)
  • 27 June 2026: CSKA Sofia vs Qarabag (Friendlies Clubs) – Match Cancelled
  • 4 July 2023: CSKA Sofia 0-1 Qarabag (Friendlies Clubs)
  • 7 July 2021: CSKA Sofia 0-1 Qarabag (Friendlies Clubs)

CSKA Sofia vs Qarabag Prediction

Stats suggest a finely balanced second leg. The prediction model gives CSKA Sofia just a 10% chance of victory, with the draw and Qarabag win each rated at 45%. That reflects Qarabag’s superior defensive numbers and their strong recent head-to-head record, including two 1-0 friendly wins away in 2021 and 2023 and a solid 0-0 at home in the first leg.

CSKA’s main route into the tie is their home scoring rate: 3 goals per game in Europe at National Stadium Vasil Levski. However, they also concede 2.0 per home match in the tournament, which is a concern against a Qarabag side averaging 2.0 goals per game and capable of winning comfortably away from home. With Qarabag’s comparison indices heavily in their favour in defence, goals and overall rating (total index 61.7 vs 38.3), the visitors look marginally more likely to edge a tight contest.

Predicted Score: CSKA Sofia 1-1 Qarabag
With the high 45% draw probability and Qarabag’s defensive strength, a low-scoring stalemate that still sees the Azeri side advance after extra time or penalties feels the most plausible regulation-time outcome.

CSKA Sofia Recent Form

CSKA Sofia’s recent Europa League form is strong at WWD across 3 matches. They have won twice and drawn once, with no defeats so far. They score an average of 1.7 goals per game and concede 1.0, and their longest winning streak stands at 2 matches. The side has managed 1 clean sheet in the tournament but has also failed to score once, underlining some inconsistency in the final third.

Qarabag Recent Form

Qarabag mirror CSKA’s basic results with a WWD record in the Europa League: 2 wins and 1 draw from 3 fixtures. The key difference is defensive solidity — they have yet to concede in Europe this season. Offensively they average 2.0 goals per match, with a biggest home win of 3-0 and a biggest away win of 0-3. Overall, they look more convincing at both ends of the pitch.

CSKA Sofia Possible Starting Lineup

GK: D. Evtimov
Defenders: J. Gbamin, Adrián Lapeña, Á. Martino, Pastor, Facundo Santiago Rodríguez, A. Yordanov, Tamimou Ouorou, T. Ivanov, A. Tunchev
Midfielders: M. Ebong, J. Eto'o, J. Iliev, Bruno Jordão, V. Kaymakanov, A. Nikolov, G. Chorbadzhiyski, P. Panayotov, S. Sensi, I. Solet Bomawoko, M. Brahimi, Léo Pereira, A. Piedrahita
Forwards: K. Dodaj, S. Godoy, M. Phaëton, I. Pittas, R. Zhivkov, J. Zwarts

CSKA Sofia have a deep squad with multiple options in defence and midfield, which aligns with their use of several formations (4-3-1-2, 3-5-2, 4-4-2) in the tournament. Expect a back four or back three built around experienced names like J. Gbamin and Adrián Lapeña, with creative impetus from midfielders such as Bruno Jordão and S. Sensi. In attack, the presence of several forwards — including M. Phaëton, I. Pittas and J. Zwarts — gives the coach flexibility to field two strikers or a lone forward supported by wide players, depending on how aggressively CSKA choose to approach the second leg.

Qarabag Possible Starting Lineup

GK: Ş. Məhəmmədəliyev or M. Kochalski
Defenders: Dani Bolt, J. Gnali, A. Hüseynov, B. Hüseynov, Bruno Langa, Matheus Silva, K. Medina, B. Mustafazadə, B. Varkonyi, S. Niftiyev
Midfielders: E. Cəfərquliyev, Č. Makreckis, H. Jabrayilzade, H. Ibrahim, M. Imamaliyev, M. Janković, Kady, Nicat Khasiyev, Samuel Lobato, Joni Montiel, Mehdi Mutallimli, Pedro Bicalho, A. Bashirov, O. Kashchuk, J. Mouaddib
Forwards: R. Cephas, Behruz Qurbanli, M. Qurbanlı, Z. Sawo, R. Almeyda

Qarabag’s consistent use of a 4-2-3-1 formation in all three Europa League fixtures suggests they will stick with that shape in Sofia. A solid central defensive pairing built from experienced options like A. Hüseynov and B. Hüseynov, shielded by a double pivot including players such as M. Janković or Č. Makreckis, has underpinned their three clean sheets. Further forward, creative midfielders like Kady and Joni Montiel can link with attackers such as R. Cephas or R. Almeyda, providing both goal threat and control in possession.

CSKA Sofia Team News

No significant absences reported.

Qarabag Team News

No significant absences reported.

Injuries & Suspensions

CSKA Sofia:

  • None reported.

Qarabag:

  • None reported.

Betting Tips: CSKA Sofia vs Qarabag

Exactly 3 distinct markets are highlighted below, based on current form, defensive records and the available odds.

  • Result Tip: Back Qarabag Draw No Bet. The prediction model gives Qarabag a 45% chance of winning versus just 10% for CSKA Sofia, with a 45% draw probability. Match winner odds for Qarabag range from 2.25 to 2.40 (implied probability roughly 41.7% to 44.4%), making them a marginal favourite. Using a Draw No Bet angle reduces risk in what could be another tight game.
  • Goals Tip: Under 2.5 goals. Qarabag have yet to concede in 3 Europa League matches (3 clean sheets), and the first leg finished 0-0. CSKA Sofia’s overall average is 1.7 scored and 1.0 conceded per game, but Qarabag’s defensive strength and the high stakes of this decider point towards a cautious, low-scoring contest. With the draw priced between 3.10 and 3.30 (implied 30.3% to 32.3%), the market is clearly braced for a tight affair, which aligns with an unders angle.
  • Value Tip: Draw in the 1X2 market. Both the prediction model and the odds highlight the stalemate as a live outcome: the draw is given a 45% probability and is priced between 3.10 and 3.30 across bookmakers, translating to an implied 30.3% to 32.3%. That gap between model probability and market price suggests potential value on the draw, especially after a 0-0 first leg and with Qarabag’s defence yet to be breached.

Odds are accurate at the time of writing and subject to change. Please gamble responsibly.

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