CSKA Sofia vs Maccabi Tel Aviv: UEFA Europa League 3rd Qualifying Round Preview

On 13 August 2026, the floodlights of National Stadium Vasil Levski in Sofia will frame a tense second act between CSKA Sofia and Maccabi Tel Aviv in the UEFA Europa League 3rd Qualifying Round. After a stunning 3-0 away win in the first meeting, CSKA come home with a commanding advantage and the chance to turn a promising summer run into a full European campaign. Maccabi, stung by that defeat, arrive in Bulgaria needing a near-perfect night to keep their Europa League dream alive.

Season Context

CSKA Sofia have started their Europa League journey with authority. Across 5 matches in this campaign, they have 4 wins and 1 draw, scoring 9 goals and conceding just 3. That record underlines a side that has been efficient at both ends of the pitch, particularly impressive given they have not yet lost in the competition so far.

Maccabi Tel Aviv’s path has been shorter but more volatile. In 3 Europa League fixtures, they have 2 wins and 1 defeat, with 6 goals scored and 3 conceded. Their away performances have been explosive in attack (5 goals in a single away outing) but that heavy 0-3 home loss to CSKA has thrown their qualifying hopes into serious doubt.

Form & Momentum

CSKA Sofia arrive in Sofia with momentum and confidence. Their Europa League form line reads WWDWW, reflecting an unbeaten run in 5 matches with 4 victories (9 goals scored and only 3 conceded across those games). That works out to roughly 1.8 goals scored and 0.6 conceded per match, a balance that supports a controlled, confident style rather than chaotic shootouts.

Maccabi Tel Aviv’s Europa League form is more mixed at WWL. Two early wins, including a 0-5 away demolition, showcased their attacking ceiling (6 goals in 3 games, averaging 2 per match), but the recent 0-3 defeat to CSKA exposed defensive frailties at home (3 goals conceded in their 2 home ties). Their profile suggests a team that can explode going forward yet remains vulnerable when pressed and forced to chase.

Head-to-Head Patterns

The recent history between these two clubs is short but emphatic. On 6 August 2026, they met at Batumi Arena in the UEFA Europa League 3rd Qualifying Round, season 2026, with Maccabi Tel Aviv as the designated home side and CSKA Sofia away. CSKA produced a statement performance, winning 0-3 (UEFA Europa League, season 2026, August 2026), seizing control of the tie with a blend of clinical finishing and compact defending. With only this competitive encounter on record in the current data set, the narrative is clear: CSKA have already proved they can handle Maccabi on neutral ground, and now they bring that advantage back to Sofia.

Tactical Preview

CSKA Sofia’s Europa League campaign so far paints the picture of a flexible, well-drilled side. They have used a variety of systems — including 4-3-1-2, 3-5-2, 4-4-2, 4-1-4-1 and 4-3-3 — each at least once, suggesting a coach comfortable tailoring the shape to opponent and game state. Their 9 goals in 5 matches and only 3 conceded underline a balanced approach: enough numbers committed forward to threaten, but with a defensive structure that has already produced 3 clean sheets. The ability to win both tight games (like a 3-2 at home) and dominant away displays (0-3) indicates they can shift between pressing high and protecting a lead.

Personnel-wise, CSKA have a deep and varied squad. At the back, options like J. Gbamin, Adrián Lapeña and Facundo Santiago Rodríguez provide a blend of physicality and ball-playing ability, while wide defenders such as Á. Martino and Pastor allow for both back-three and back-four setups. In midfield, players like M. Ebong, Bruno Jordão, S. Sensi and I. Solet Bomawoko give CSKA the tools to control tempo and press second balls. Further forward, attackers such as S. Godoy, I. Pittas, J. Zwarts and Léo Pereira offer different profiles — target play, runs in behind, and combination play — ideal for exploiting spaces as Maccabi push forward in search of goals.

Maccabi Tel Aviv, meanwhile, have alternated between 3-5-2, 4-3-3 and 4-2-3-1. Their 6 goals in 3 Europa League matches, including a spectacular 0-5 away win, show they are dangerous when transitions open up and their front line finds space. Defensively, though, 3 goals conceded — all at home — point to issues when they are forced to defend sustained pressure or when their wing-backs/full-backs are pinned deep.

The Israeli side’s squad features a solid defensive core with players like M. Camara, R. Revivo and R. Shlomo, supported by flexible wide defenders such as S. Yehezkel. In midfield, D. Glazer, Dor Peretz and K. Belić can provide steel and distribution, while creative and attacking threats like O. Davida, Y. Malede, E. Sokler and Hélio Varela give them the tools to chase the tie. The tactical dilemma for Maccabi will be how aggressively to commit bodies forward; they need goals, but an early concession in Sofia could effectively end the contest.

Statistical Snapshot

• Competition: UEFA Europa League, season 2026 — 13 August 2026.
• Venue: National Stadium Vasil Levski, Sofia.
• Prediction: Win or draw for CSKA Sofia — Double chance : CSKA Sofia or draw.
• Win Probabilities: Home 45% / Draw 45% / Away 10%.
• Model: CSKA Sofia 59.3 — Maccabi Tel Aviv 40.7.

Betting Verdict

The prediction model leans clearly towards CSKA Sofia avoiding defeat, with a double-chance recommendation backed by both form and the 0-3 first-leg statement. Bookmaker odds for a CSKA home win range from around 1.98 to 2.14, implying an approximate probability band of about 47–51%, while the draw sits roughly between 3.10 and 3.25 (around 31–32%) and the away win between 3.40 and 4.05 (around 25–29%). Given CSKA’s unbeaten Europa League run (WWDWW, 9 scored and 3 conceded in 5 matches) and their clear upper hand in the only recent head-to-head, backing CSKA Sofia or draw aligns with both the statistical edge and the game-state context of a side protecting a strong aggregate lead at home. For those seeking a slightly bolder angle, the combination of CSKA’s solid defence and Maccabi’s need to take risks could also point towards a home-favoured result in a game where the hosts manage the tempo and the scoreboard.