CSKA Sofia vs OFI Prediction: Key Stats and Betting Tips

CSKA Sofia host OFI at National Stadium Vasil Levski in Sofia on 27 August 2026 in the second leg of their UEFA Europa League Play-offs tie, needing a major response after a heavy defeat in Heraklion. With a place in the Europa League group stage on the line, the Bulgarian side must overturn a 3-0 first-leg deficit against a confident Greek outfit.

OFI’s 3-0 win at Pagritio on 20 August 2026 has put them firmly in control of the tie, but the return leg in Sofia offers CSKA Sofia a chance to harness home advantage in front of their own fans. Stats suggest CSKA are generally competitive in this competition, yet their defensive frailty and OFI’s perfect start in Europe this season add extra intrigue to this decisive Play-offs clash.

From a betting and prediction standpoint, this fixture balances CSKA Sofia’s strong home record and higher market expectations against OFI’s recent dominance in the head-to-head and their flawless defensive record so far in the UEFA Europa League. That tension between historical strength and current momentum will shape both the tactical approach and the best betting angles.

CSKA Sofia vs OFI Key Stats

• Across 7 UEFA Europa League matches this season, CSKA Sofia have 4 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses, scoring 10 and conceding 9.
• The only previous meeting between the sides in this tie saw OFI beat CSKA Sofia 3-0 at Pagritio on 20 August 2026.
• In tournament statistics, CSKA Sofia have kept 3 clean sheets in 7 matches, while OFI have 1 clean sheet from their single Europa League outing.

CSKA Sofia vs OFI — Tale of the Tape

• Position: Not available vs Not available
• Points: Not available vs Not available
• Goals For: 10 (CSKA Sofia, 7 matches) vs 3 (OFI, 1 match)
• Goals Against: 9 (CSKA Sofia) vs 0 (OFI)
• Clean Sheets: CSKA Sofia 3 vs OFI 1 (tournament statistics)

Standings data for the Play-offs round is not provided, but the broader Europa League statistics give a clear picture of both sides. CSKA Sofia have been involved in relatively open games, averaging 1.4 goals scored and 1.3 conceded per match across 7 fixtures. Their record of 4 wins from those 7 underlines that they are generally competitive at this level, especially at home where they have 2 wins from 3.

OFI’s sample size is much smaller but impressive: one match, a 3-0 victory over CSKA Sofia. They average 3.0 goals scored and 0.0 conceded in Europe so far, with a clean sheet and a penalty converted. While that is based on just one game, it reflects a side that executed their game plan perfectly in the first leg and now travel to Sofia with a commanding aggregate lead.

CSKA Sofia vs OFI Key Matchups

Bruno Jordão vs Aitor Cantalapiedra

Bruno Jordão has been one of CSKA Sofia’s most productive midfielders in this Europa League campaign. In 2 appearances he has scored 1 goal, making him a key source of attacking threat from midfield. His ability to arrive late in the box and contribute on the scoresheet will be vital if CSKA are to chase down the deficit.

For OFI, Aitor Cantalapiedra stands out in the squad list as a creative midfielder with the technical quality to influence the game between the lines. While we do not have specific goal or assist numbers for him in this competition yet, his profile suggests he will be central to OFI’s attempts to control possession and launch counters, especially with the visitors likely to sit deeper and protect their aggregate advantage.

Pastor vs T. Fountas

CSKA defender Pastor has featured prominently, with 2 Europa League appearances and 1 assist to his name. His contribution going forward from the backline adds an extra dimension to CSKA’s build-up, but he will also be under pressure defensively after the 3-0 loss in Greece. His ability to balance overlapping runs with defensive solidity will be crucial.

On the other side, T. Fountas is one of OFI’s leading attacking names. Although specific Europa League stats for Fountas are not listed, his experience and goal threat make him a natural focal point for OFI’s counters. The duel between Pastor’s defensive positioning and Fountas’ movement in behind could decide whether CSKA can keep a clean sheet while chasing goals.

Head-to-Head: Last Meetings

This tie is built around a very recent history between the sides, with the first leg setting the tone for the return in Sofia.

• 20 August 2026: OFI 3-0 CSKA Sofia (UEFA Europa League)

CSKA Sofia vs OFI Prediction

Match dynamics point towards a game where CSKA Sofia must take the initiative. They have averaged 1.4 goals per match in the Europa League and scored in 5 of their 7 games, but they also concede at 1.3 per game, with a notable vulnerability late on — a significant share of their goals against has come in the 76–90 minute window. Chasing a 3-0 deficit, they are likely to push numbers forward, which could expose those defensive frailties again.

OFI, by contrast, come into this second leg with a perfect record in Europe this season: 1 win, 3 goals scored, none conceded, and a penalty converted. Their recent form index shows 100 in both overall form and defense for their last match, underlining how dominant they were in the first leg. The prediction model gives CSKA Sofia just a 10% chance of winning the match, with both the draw and an OFI win rated at 45% each, reflecting strong respect for OFI’s position and the possibility of a controlled, low-risk approach from the visitors.

Market odds, however, see CSKA Sofia as clear favourites on the night: home-win prices range from 1.58 to 1.65 (implied probability roughly 60.6% to 63.3%), while OFI are out at 5.00 to 5.80 (about 17.2% to 20.0%), with the draw around 3.82 to 4.00 (25.0% to 26.2%). That discrepancy between models and market suggests that while OFI are in a strong aggregate position, bookmakers still expect CSKA to win the single match at home, even if it may not be enough to overturn the tie.

Predicted Score: CSKA Sofia 1-1 OFI
A balanced prediction reflects OFI’s strong defensive record and aggregate advantage, combined with CSKA Sofia’s need to respond at home. A draw fits the 45% draw probability and OFI’s 45% win chance, with CSKA’s low 10% win probability suggesting they may struggle to dominate despite market favouritism.

CSKA Sofia Recent Form

In recent UEFA Europa League matches, CSKA Sofia have shown mixed form. Across 7 games they have 4 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats, indicating a generally positive but inconsistent run. Their last-five overall metrics show an attacking index of 28 and a defensive index of 67, with 5 goals scored and 6 conceded over those five fixtures. That profile points to a side that can create chances but is not entirely secure at the back, something that was exposed in the 3-0 loss away to OFI.

OFI Recent Form

OFI’s recent Europa League form is based on a single but emphatic outing: a 3-0 home win over CSKA Sofia. Their last-five metrics (1 match) are outstanding, with a form index of 100, attack 17 and defense 100, plus 3 goals scored and none conceded. While the sample size is small, they arrive in Sofia with confidence, a clean sheet, and a three-goal cushion, which should allow them to play with composure and discipline.

CSKA Sofia Possible Starting Lineup

GK: D. Evtimov; Defenders: J. Gbamin, Adrián Lapeña, Pastor, Facundo Santiago Rodríguez; Midfielders: Bruno Jordão, M. Ebong, S. Sensi, M. Brahimi; Forwards: S. Godoy, I. Pittas.

CSKA Sofia have used a variety of systems in the Europa League, including 4-3-3, 4-3-1-2 and 3-5-2, but the most common has been 4-3-3. Expect something similar here, with D. Evtimov in goal and a back four anchored by Pastor and Adrián Lapeña. In midfield, Bruno Jordão’s goal threat and S. Sensi’s control will be crucial as CSKA chase the game, while wide players like M. Brahimi and forwards such as S. Godoy and I. Pittas will need to provide penetration and end product. With no injury data reported, CSKA appear to have a full squad to choose from, increasing the likelihood of an aggressive, attack-heavy lineup.

OFI Possible Starting Lineup

GK: N. Christogeorgos; Defenders: L. Dickmann, Borja González, D. Nikolaou, N. Marinakis; Midfielders: A. Bouchalakis, Z. Karachalios, T. Androutsos, Aitor Cantalapiedra; Forwards: T. Fountas, A. Leya.

OFI lined up in a 3-4-3 in their only Europa League match so far, and they may again opt for a flexible back line that can shift between three and four at the back depending on game state. Experienced midfielders like A. Bouchalakis and Z. Karachalios should provide stability, while Aitor Cantalapiedra offers creativity in advanced areas. Up front, T. Fountas and A. Leya give OFI pace and physical presence on the break — ideal for exploiting the spaces that CSKA will likely leave as they push forward.

CSKA Sofia Team News

No significant absences reported.

OFI Team News

No significant absences reported.

Injuries & Suspensions

CSKA Sofia:

• None reported.

OFI:

• None reported.

Betting Tips: CSKA Sofia vs OFI

Exactly 3 distinct betting ideas based on current form, probabilities and available odds:

• Result Tip: Back CSKA Sofia to win the match.
  Despite the prediction model giving CSKA only a 10% chance to win compared to 45% for both draw and OFI, the market strongly favours the hosts with home odds between 1.58 and 1.65 (implied 60.6%–63.3%). CSKA’s strong overall Europa League record (4 wins in 7) and the need to chase the tie suggest they will attack aggressively, making a home win a realistic outcome for the single match, even if OFI still progress on aggregate.
• Goals Tip: Under 3.5 total goals.
  CSKA Sofia’s matches in this Europa League run have gone under 3.5 goals in all 7 fixtures, and OFI’s only game finished 3-0 — right on the 3-goal mark. With OFI likely to sit deep to protect a three-goal advantage and CSKA needing to balance risk with not conceding early, a controlled tempo is likely. Look for under-goals prices around typical market ranges for under 3.5, using your preferred bookmaker’s line, as specific totals odds are not listed here.
• Value Tip: Both Teams to Score – Yes (BTTS).
  CSKA Sofia have scored in 5 of their 7 Europa League matches and average 1.4 goals per game, while also conceding 1.3 on average. Their defensive record, especially late in games, suggests they are vulnerable when pushing forward. OFI have already shown they can score three against CSKA and will have space to counter. With OFI’s match win odds between 5.00 and 5.80 (17.2%–20.0% implied) suggesting the market expects them mainly to contain, BTTS offers a potentially better value angle than siding with the underdog outright. Check BTTS prices with your bookmaker for the best line.

Odds are accurate at the time of writing and subject to change. Please gamble responsibly.