CSKA Sofia vs Maccabi Tel Aviv: UEFA Europa League Preview

CSKA Sofia host Maccabi Tel Aviv at the National Stadium Vasil Levski in Sofia in the UEFA Europa League 3rd Qualifying Round, with the tie finely poised in terms of qualification stakes but psychologically tilted after CSKA’s emphatic 3–0 away win in Batumi a week earlier. That first-leg result, achieved on neutral ground with Maccabi listed as the home team, gives the Bulgarians a huge advantage and frames this return game both tactically and from a betting perspective.

Form trends strongly favour CSKA Sofia. In Europa League action this season they are unbeaten over 5 matches with a league form line of WWDWW, translating into 4 wins and 1 draw. They have scored 9 goals (1.8 per game) and conceded only 3 (0.6 per game), with three clean sheets. Their last-five performance indices underline the strength of their current level: form 87, attack 69, defense 77. At home in this competition they have played 2, winning both, scoring 4 and conceding 2.

Maccabi Tel Aviv’s Europa League sample is smaller but more volatile. Their league form is WWL from 3 matches, with 2 wins and 1 defeat. They have scored 6 goals (2.0 per game) and conceded 3 (1.0 per game), keeping 2 clean sheets but also failing to score once. Their last-five block (over those 3 competitive fixtures) shows form 67, attack 46, defense 77: a decent defensive index but a much weaker attacking rating compared with CSKA. Notably, they lost 0–3 in the first leg, their only “home” game in the competition so far where they conceded all 3 goals and failed to score.

Looking deeper at recent goal patterns, CSKA Sofia spread their scoring well across matches and minutes. In Europa League play they have already hit 9 goals across 5 fixtures, with at least some threat in almost every 15-minute segment between 0 and 90 minutes. Defensively they are generally solid, with only 3 goals conceded and just one period (76–90 minutes) where they have looked slightly more vulnerable, allowing 2 of those 3 goals late on. Maccabi, by contrast, are more extreme: 6 goals scored in only 3 matches, heavily boosted by a 5–0 away win, but they were shut out twice if you combine their 1–0 and 0–3 home results. Their goals conceded all came at “home” (3 in 2 matches), while they have yet to concede in their single away outing.

The head-to-head data is minimal but very clear. The only recorded meeting is the first leg on 6 August 2026 at Batumi Arena, where Maccabi Tel Aviv were the designated hosts and CSKA Sofia ran out 3–0 winners (2–0 at half-time). That result confirms CSKA’s ability to control this specific opponent tactically and physically on neutral ground; moving now to Sofia, the environment swings further in their favour.

The prediction model from the API strongly leans towards CSKA avoiding defeat, designating them as the expected winner with the comment “Win or draw” and explicit advice: “Double chance : CSKA Sofia or draw”. The win probabilities are estimated at 45% home, 45% draw, 10% away, implying a 90% modelled chance that CSKA do not lose in regulation time.

Market prices, however, are more balanced. Across major bookmakers, home odds range from 2.23 to 2.41, implying an unadjusted probability band of roughly 41–45% for a CSKA win. Draw odds between 2.98 and 3.40 imply around 29–34%, while away odds from 2.73 to 3.14 suggest about 32–37% for a Maccabi victory. The market therefore treats this as a fairly even contest with only a slight lean towards CSKA, whereas the prediction model is much more pessimistic about Maccabi’s chances.

This divergence creates a clear value angle. With the model giving CSKA Sofia or draw a 90% chance and the market effectively pricing all three outcomes much closer together, the safest and most data-aligned position is to follow the official advice and back CSKA Sofia on the double chance (home or draw). For more aggressive bettors, CSKA draw-no-bet or even the straight home win at around 2.30–2.40 can be justified given their unbeaten run, superior recent indices, and the psychological edge of a 3–0 first-leg victory, but the core recommendation remains:

Betting verdict: CSKA Sofia or draw (double chance) is the standout play, closely matching the prediction model while still being reasonably priced by the market.