Aston Villa's Striker Revolution: Jackson In, Watkins Out

Aston Villa have torn up their forward line and started again.

Nicolas Jackson is in. Ollie Watkins is heading out. And Unai Emery is not just changing his striker – he is changing the way his team attacks.

A record signing, a dressing room reset

Villa have agreed a deal worth up to £65m for Jackson, who arrives as the club’s new record signing and the latest piece in a ruthless summer overhaul.

The Europa League winners have already waved goodbye to Morgan Rogers, Ezri Konsa, Youri Tielemans and Lucas Digne. The spine that helped drive their surge under Emery is being dismantled in real time.

That turbulence showed on opening weekend. Villa, disjointed and short of edge, were thrashed 4-0 at Brighton. With Watkins unavailable and both Tammy Abraham and 17-year-old Brian Madjo injured, Emery had no recognised centre-forward. Emiliano Buendia, a creator by trade, ended up leading the line.

The arrival of Jackson from Chelsea instantly changes that picture. It gives Emery a specialist number nine to build around – but not a like-for-like Watkins clone.

Watkins era closing, Jackson era beginning

Watkins, 30, looks set to join Saudi Pro League side Al-Hilal, ending a six-year spell that has defined Villa’s rise.

He leaves behind 108 goals in 278 games and a reputation as the relentless, selfless focal point of Emery’s high-tempo side. Reliability, running power, goals. Week after week.

Jackson, 25, comes with a different profile and a different rhythm.

On the surface, his numbers stack up impressively. Across all competitions for Bayern Munich last season, the Senegal forward scored 11 goals and supplied three assists in 1,320 minutes. That works out at 1.0 goal involvement per 90 minutes.

Watkins, by comparison, delivered 21 goals and five assists in 3,837 minutes – 0.6 goal involvements per 90.

The new man does not just finish moves; he constantly threatens to start them.

Jackson averaged 3.8 shots per 90 minutes to Watkins’ 2.6, and 2.2 shots on target compared with 1.2. His expected-goals (xG) figure was higher too: 0.7 per 90, versus 0.5 for Watkins. He also lived closer to goal, taking 8.5 touches in the opposition box per 90, while Watkins averaged 5.6.

This is not a striker who drifts around the periphery. He plays on the penalty spot.

A long-running pattern – and a familiar question

Those numbers are not a one-season quirk. Since January 2020, among players with at least 5,000 Premier League minutes, only Erling Haaland has posted a higher non-penalty xG per 90 than Jackson’s 0.55.

Getting into scoring positions is not his problem. Finishing them has been.

Across his two Premier League seasons with Chelsea, Jackson consistently underperformed his xG. In 2023-24, he scored 14 league goals from 18.7 xG. The following campaign, he hit 10 from 12.3 xG.

In England so far, he has converted 18 of 61 big chances. Watkins has not been flawless either – 24 of 73 big chances taken since joining Villa in 2020 – but the perception around the two has been different.

Look closer at last season, though, and the gap narrows almost to nothing. Jackson converted 19.6% of his shots and 40.9% of his big chances. Watkins? 18.9% and 43.2%.

The contrast lies in volume and context, not in one being ice-cold and the other erratic.

The sample size warning

There is a catch that Villa’s analysts will know well.

Watkins started 43 matches last season and played almost three times as many minutes. Jackson started only 15 of his 34 appearances, often coming off the bench. Opta notes that his substitute-heavy sample can inflate per-90 numbers, making his output look more explosive than it might appear across a full, gruelling season.

That is the gamble. Can Jackson maintain those levels when he becomes the guaranteed starter, not the impact option?

What happens when Villa lose the ball?

Emery’s football lives off what happens without possession as much as with it. On that front, Jackson looks tailor-made for a high-pressing side.

He averaged 34 high pressures per 90, slightly ahead of Watkins’ 31.4. The real separation comes in what those pressures produced.

Jackson won the ball 2.7 times per 90, compared with Watkins’ 1.8. In the final third, he regained possession 0.9 times per 90; Watkins managed 0.6.

Among Opta’s striker sample, Jackson sat in the 88th percentile for possession won in the attacking third. Watkins was in the 43rd.

This is a forward who hunts. He does not just close down for show; he turns pressure into turnovers.

Runs, duels and different weapons

In terms of movement, the pair are strikingly similar. Jackson averaged 13 runs in behind per 90, Watkins 12.7. The Englishman made marginally more runs that finished inside the penalty area, but the basic picture is of two strikers who constantly stretch defences.

Where Watkins pulls away is in the air and in his ball-carrying style.

He won 1.2 aerial duels per 90; Jackson managed 0.7. Watkins also carried the ball more directly towards goal, often turning long clearances or hopeful passes into territory and pressure.

So while Jackson can replicate the volume of shots and the chaos around the box, he will not reproduce every facet of Watkins’ game. Villa will lose some aerial security and some of the old-fashioned target-man graft that has underpinned their recent success.

A different number nine, a different Villa?

Watkins has been the constant through one of Villa’s most successful modern eras – a dependable presence who married industry with end product.

Jackson arrives as the next phase. Five years younger. More touches. More ball carries. More chances created for others. In limited minutes last season, he produced shots and high-quality opportunities at a rate that will excite any data department.

The doubts are clear enough: can those per-90 numbers survive a heavier workload, and can he shake off the finishing questions that followed him at Chelsea?

Emery is betting that he can – and he is not doing it blind. He has coached Jackson before, knows his tendencies and the areas he wants to refine. For Villa, the equation is simple: replace a 30-year-old striker whose ceiling is well understood with a 25-year-old whose underlying metrics hint at untapped growth.

If Jackson beds in and Watkins does complete his move, Villa will not just have swapped centre-forwards.

They will have redrawn the job description of their number nine.