Arsenal's Title Race: Predictions and Surprises
If this season collapses in north London, it won’t be for lack of backing. Across a panel of writers, one theme roared through louder than any other: this is Arsenal’s title to lose.
Sarah Winterburn doesn’t so much tip them as dismiss everyone else. With “stability and no little strengthening” – headlined by the signing of Bruno Guimaraes – she sees a procession. “No team will come within 10 points,” she declares.
Matt Stead calls it “Phase five” of the Arteta project. Dave Tickner, who went for Arsenal last year “with little confidence”, is all-in this time, convinced the Gunners are now the only genuinely settled heavyweight in a league full of “year-one, foundation-stage rebuilds.” Ian Watson and Jason Soutar echo the same sentiment: too much chaos everywhere else, too much continuity at the Emirates.
Lewis Oldham likes the blend of stability and smart recruitment. Michael Lee admits he spent the summer trying to talk himself out of backing Arsenal, only to be “humbled” by the Community Shield and the sight of rivals in disarray. Nestor Watach thinks last year’s title finally freed Arsenal from their own neurosis. Samuel Bannister draws the PSG-in-Europe comparison: once you crack it, you can back it up – and believes Bruno Guimaraes is precisely the kind of signing that keeps a champion on top.
Only John Nicholson dares to break the red-and-white chorus. He goes for Manchester United, pointing to the Carrick era and insisting “they were the best team in the league under Carrick. Them’s the facts.”
Chaos behind the champions: top-four predictions all over the place
If the title race looks clear in most minds, the rest of the Champions League picture is a scribble.
Winterburn sticks Chelsea, Liverpool and Manchester City behind Arsenal, with United down in fifth as a bonus pick. Stead goes for “Cobham Current Gen” – Chelsea – then City and Liverpool. Nicholson throws Aston Villa into his top four, behind Chelsea and City.
Tickner pretty much shrugs on paper, calling it “infamously impossible” this year, then settles on Chelsea, Liverpool, City “with almost zero confidence.” Watson admits he hasn’t “a clue” but forces out City, Chelsea and Tottenham before immediately doubting himself. Soutar also backs Chelsea and City, with Spurs completing his four.
Oldham sees City missing the title “by a similar margin to last season”, Chelsea doing a Manchester United-style bounce without Europe, and Liverpool just edging United for fourth. Lee lines up Chelsea, City, Liverpool but floats Spurs as potential gatecrashers. Watach expects a “correction” back towards wage-bill logic: City, Liverpool, United, with Chelsea in fifth – which might still be enough for the Champions League. Bannister flips the order again: Liverpool, City, Chelsea, convinced Isak under Iraola and an improved Wirtz will lift Liverpool, while a Europe-free Chelsea cash in on the clear calendar.
Nobody agrees. Nobody sounds sure.
Relegation: promoted clubs in the firing line
Down at the other end, the knives are out for the newcomers.
Winterburn goes straight for Ipswich, Coventry and Hull City. Tickner does the same, lumping “the promoted teams” together and insisting “there isn’t a Sunderland or a Leeds in this promoted crop. It’s just Burnleys.”
Watson also sends Ipswich, Hull and Coventry straight back down. Bannister mirrors that trio, though he expects Coventry to give it the best shot and tips Crystal Palace as the existing side most likely to flirt with danger.
Stead sees Hull as “gone” and Coventry eventually following, but believes Ipswich survive by “initiating the Leeds Protocol” – signing a load of six-footers – with Sunderland the ones to get “xG’d” into trouble. Nicholson also has Hull as “an obvious one” and then throws in Newcastle and Palace, both collapsing under new managers.
Soutar is brutal: Fulham – “you have to fear for them, you really do” – plus Ipswich (“rubbish”) and Hull (“proper rubbish”). Oldham is convinced Hull and Ipswich are certainties to go, but sees Coventry’s momentum under Frank Lampard keeping them up and Fulham slipping to 18th. Lee instead dooms Sunderland, Coventry and Hull, backing Ipswich’s “tidy signings” and warning Sunderland will be sidetracked by Europe after “drastically” overachieving last year. Watach returns to the promoted trio as a block, fearing a “grim and concerning emerging norm.”
No consensus, but Hull and Ipswich appear on almost everyone’s trapdoor list.
Surprise packages: Leeds hype, Newcastle revival and a Palace curveball
Ask who might pleasantly surprise and one name dominates: Leeds United.
Winterburn thinks they’ve “bought well” and could break into the top eight. Nicholson has them finishing sixth, praising upgrades at goalkeeper, centre-back, midfield and striker. Oldham believes they can “sneak into the top ten” with a strong batch of signings. Watach says Leeds were “excellent in the latter half of last season” and that Daniel Farke’s squad looks stronger again; a push for the Conference League “isn’t unthinkable.” Watson, drily, says Leeds will be “surprising if not pleasant.”
Others spread the optimism around. Stead tips both Bournemouth and Palace to finish in the top half. Tickner, after lamenting the lost innocence of being happy for other clubs, lands on Palace as the side who could pull a Brentford-style “Absolutely Fine” season from a position of peril, helped by what he sees as a better manager than their peers at Fulham, Bournemouth or Newcastle.
Soutar sees Coventry’s 15th place as a nicer story than Chelsea’s expected surge. Lee goes for Forest “getting back into Europe again.” Bannister expects Newcastle to shake off last year’s underwhelm and climb back into the top half, helped by “interesting young replacements” for their departures.
Haaland, the inevitable
On the Golden Boot, the panel barely bothers to pretend there’s a debate.
Winterburn, Stead, Nicholson, Watson, Soutar, Oldham, Lee, Watach and Bannister all land on the same answer: Erling Haaland. Some dress it up, some don’t. “Daft question,” says Winterburn. “Silly,” adds Stead. Watach points out he’s scored three in four seasons and that no other Premier League striker is even in his “stratosphere.”
Tickner calls him “The Goalbot 3000” and predicts the usual “12 goals in the first nine games” en route to around 30. He only really cares about the each-way value behind him, unconvinced by Alexander Isak as second favourite and floating long shots like Matheus Cunha and Cody Gakpo as potential outsiders if circumstances fall their way.
Isak is the most common runner-up pick, with Oldham convinced he’ll “run him close.”
New faces, big impacts: Trafford, Bruno and the Leeds core
When it comes to new signings, the answers split between high-end glamour and cold, structural fixes.
Watson and Bannister both hammer the same point: James Trafford at Leeds is a massive upgrade in goal and could transform their defensive security. Watson labels him “not dicey as f***,” which is all Leeds really needed. Oldham goes further, calling him “a colossal upgrade” who could end the season as England’s No.1. Stead anoints him “by definition” the biggest-impact signing, with Lee also tipping him as such despite the record fee.
Guimaraes to Arsenal gets big backing too. Winterburn sees him as the creative unlock for the champions, while Watson describes him as “great for Arsenal.” Watach is captivated by Tarik Muharemovic at Leeds, saying the Bosnia international looks capable of taking them “to another level” and predicting Champions League links within a year.
Stead also highlights Jeremy Jacquet as “a vast upgrade” on whatever Ibrahima Konate had become. Nicholson thinks Morgan Rogers is exactly the player Chelsea need right now. Tickner, still high on the Community Shield, plumps for Christos Tzolis. Soutar can’t split Leeds’ early business, picking Trafford, Harry Wilson and Muharemovic collectively as his answer.
The flops-in-waiting: Elliot Anderson under the microscope
On the other side of the ledger, the panel lines up a few expensive targets.
Winterburn starts with Elliot Anderson at Manchester City. She argues that to be a “massive flop” you need a massive fee, and Anderson’s price tag at a club of City’s level makes him a prime candidate. Tickner agrees, calling Anderson “the most egregious” of this summer’s midfield overspends. Lee and Bannister both point to the £116m fee and the timing of his move to City as a huge weight on his shoulders.
Nicholson sticks to tradition: a big-money Tottenham signing who has been good elsewhere. For him, Sandro Tonali fits the bill. Watson fears for Alejandro Garnacho and worries about Rogers living up to his fee. Soutar brands Ronald Araujo “proper bobbins” and also has doubts about Victor Munoz at Liverpool. Oldham eyes Andrey Santos at £50m and simply says it “feels like A LOT.”
Bargains: Wilson for free, Tielemans for £35m and quiet value
The bargain hunt has a more cheerful tone.
Winterburn and Bannister both circle Youri Tielemans at £35m as a “steal” and “shrewd” business, even if the resale value might be limited. Leeds’ free transfer for Harry Wilson is widely hailed: Stead expects him to hit double figures in goals, Nicholson calls it “great business and a perfect fit,” and Tickner says it still counts as a bargain even if free transfers feel like cheating, because Leeds had wanted him for a fee last year.
Watson adds Xaver Schlager as another freebie bargain. Soutar again namechecks Wilson, with honourable mentions for Tzolis and Marcos Senesi. Oldham highlights Christian Norgaard as a smart pick-up for Everton after his outstanding season at Brentford. Lee, despite Trafford’s price, believes the points he’ll save Leeds will still make him a bargain in the bigger picture. Watach points to Hayden Hackney at an initial £16m as “crazily low” in this market. Bannister, still slightly dazzled by the Community Shield, thinks Tzolis at £34m is good value given what comparable wingers are going for.
PFA Player of the Year: Rice, Bruno, Haaland… and two goalkeepers
Predicting PFA Player of the Year is always a shot in the dark. Last season’s winner, Bruno Fernandes, underlines that.
This time, Bruno Guimaraes gets strong backing. Winterburn believes he can be the creative key for Arsenal, while Oldham expects him to ride the usual “champions’ player” bias to the award, especially after a good World Cup and his partnership with Declan Rice.
Rice himself gets multiple nods. Tickner argues that a deeper Arsenal midfield will allow him to play fewer games but have more impact, after ending the World Cup as “football’s weariest human.” Watson and Watach also see him as the potential headline-grabber in a team of shared stars.
Stead goes for World Cup hat-trick hero Bukayo Saka. Nicholson, still bullish on City’s Anderson, tips him for the main award and Brian Madjo for Young Player. Lee and Soutar go left-field with David Raya, both backing a goalkeeper to take the prize. Bannister keeps it simple: if Haaland scores a bucketload again, he’ll sweep up this one too.
Managers on the brink: Arbeloa, Jakirovic and the usual Forest drama
First manager to leave? That’s where the knives really come out.
Alvaro Arbeloa at Fulham sets off alarm bells for several. Winterburn says “it just doesn’t feel quite right.” Watson “worries about Fulham” and picks Arbeloa, half-joking that the Spaniard can thank him when he gets his statue. Oldham also has him gone “after a poor couple of months.”
Hull’s Sergej Jakirovic is another popular candidate. Nicholson picks him, Lee does the same while predicting Hull’s owner will become a “Main Character,” and Watach says he has the “expendable vibe” of a horror-movie extra.
Tickner sticks with a proven formula: Nottingham Forest’s Oliver Glasner. The logic is simple – Evangelos Marinakis changes managers more than anyone and has no qualms about early sackings. Stead throws David Moyes into the mix. Soutar bluntly writes off “the bloke from Hull” as “doomed.” Bannister fears second-season syndrome for Regis Le Bris at Sunderland after he arguably did “too well” in year one.
Europe’s biggest prize: Arsenal’s arc, PSG’s streak, Barcelona’s Rodri gamble
On the Champions League, the panel splits three ways: Barcelona, PSG and Arsenal.
Winterburn, Lee and Watach all land on Barcelona, with Rodri seen as the missing piece to give them the same total control Spain enjoyed at the World Cup. Lee adds the caveat that they still need a proper centre-back alongside Pau Cubarsi, or else PSG might make it three in a row.
PSG have their own backers. Nicholson thinks they’ll be “hard to beat again.” Oldham says they’re “too good” and tips them despite a soft spot for Jose Mourinho’s Real Madrid. Bannister is convinced “something’s finally clicked” for PSG in Europe and sees a three-peat coming.
Then there’s Arsenal. Tickner notes their Champions League arc of quarter-final, semi-final, runners-up in the last three seasons and declares there’s only one direction left: winners, with a Premier League–Champions League double or bust. Soutar leans into the same “science” of progression – QF, SF, final defeat – and pencils them in as 2027 champions. Watson, ever the realist, goes for Real Madrid.
And what are they most excited about?
Strip everything else away and the writers’ five-word answers tell you what this season really feels like: new managers everywhere, no VAR in the Championship, uncertainty, unpredictability, chaos.
Arsenal are the clear favourites on paper. Manchester United have at least one true believer. Leeds are everybody’s pet project. The promoted clubs are braced for a storm. Haaland looks nailed on to hoover up goals again.
The rest? That’s the fun bit.
