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Anderlecht vs PAOK Prediction: Key Stats and Betting Tips

Anderlecht welcome PAOK to Lotto Park in Anderlecht on 13 August 2026 for the second leg of their UEFA Europa League 3rd Qualifying Round tie. The Belgian side hold a narrow advantage after a 1-0 away win in Thessaloniki on 06 August 2026, and now have home advantage as they look to finish the job and move one step closer to the group stage.

With both teams showing strong early-tournament form – each unbeaten in two of their three Europa League fixtures so far – this decisive clash is finely poised. Anderlecht have been solid at the back and efficient in attack, while PAOK have produced explosive scoring spells but were shut out at home in the first leg. This match will attract plenty of interest from fans and bettors looking for Anderlecht vs PAOK predictions, Europa League betting tips, and insight into how the tie might unfold at Lotto Park.

The stakes are clear: Anderlecht can afford a draw but will not want to sit back against a PAOK side that has already scored three goals in an away Europa League match this campaign. PAOK, meanwhile, must chase the game without allowing Anderlecht to exploit the spaces that will inevitably open up. The balance between Anderlecht’s defensive structure and PAOK’s attacking intent should define this second leg.

Anderlecht vs PAOK Key Stats

  • Anderlecht are unbeaten in the Europa League this season with 2 wins and 1 draw across 3 matches, scoring 5 and conceding just 2.
  • The only previous recent meeting between the sides came on 06 August 2026, when Anderlecht beat PAOK 1-0 away in Thessaloniki in the first leg.
  • In Europa League tournament statistics so far, both teams have scored 5 goals in 3 matches, but Anderlecht have conceded 0.7 goals per game compared to PAOK’s 1.0.

Anderlecht vs PAOK — Tale of the Tape

  • Position: Not available vs Not available
  • Points: Not available vs Not available
  • Goals For: Not available vs Not available
  • Goals Against: Not available vs Not available
  • Clean Sheets: Anderlecht 1 vs PAOK 1 (tournament statistics)

Group-stage style standings are not yet in play at this qualifying phase, but tournament statistics still tell a story. Anderlecht have played 3 Europa League matches, winning 2 and drawing 1, with a goal difference of +3 (5 scored, 2 conceded). They have yet to lose in the competition and have already kept 1 clean sheet.

PAOK mirror Anderlecht’s attacking output with 5 goals in 3 games but have a slightly looser defence, conceding 3. They have 2 wins and 1 defeat, including a 0-1 home loss to Anderlecht in the first leg. Both sides have demonstrated they can control games – Anderlecht with a more balanced approach, PAOK with a higher-variance attacking style that produced a 3-goal away performance earlier in the qualifiers.

Anderlecht vs PAOK Key Matchups

Anderlecht structure vs PAOK creativity

With no individual top scorers or assist leaders listed, the key battle is more tactical than personal. Anderlecht’s Europa League run has been built on control: 5 goals in 3 matches with an average of 1.7 per game, while conceding only 0.7. They have not failed to score in any of their fixtures and have shown they can strike early and late, with a significant share of goals coming in the 0–15 and 76–90 minute windows.

PAOK, by contrast, have been more explosive but less secure. They also average 1.7 goals per match, but their goals against figure rises to 1.0 per game. Their scoring has often come in concentrated bursts between 31–60 minutes. The matchup between Anderlecht’s defensive organisation and PAOK’s middle-phase attacking surges will be crucial, especially if the Greek side need to chase the game after the interval.

Midfield control vs transition threat

Both teams have used relatively stable formations in the competition. Anderlecht have alternated between 4-4-2 (2 matches) and 4-3-3 (1 match), suggesting flexibility between a solid block and a more aggressive front line. PAOK have consistently lined up in a 4-2-3-1 across all three Europa League fixtures, emphasising a double pivot and a creative band of three behind the striker.

This shapes a clear tactical duel: Anderlecht’s midfield – capable of shifting between a three and a flat four – will try to disrupt PAOK’s 10 and wide playmakers. PAOK’s transitions, especially in the 31–60 minute range where they have scored most frequently, must be contained if Anderlecht are to protect their aggregate lead.

Head-to-Head: Last Meetings

The recent head-to-head history between Anderlecht and PAOK is limited but immediately relevant, with the first leg providing the clearest reference point for this tie.

  • 06 August 2026: PAOK 0-1 Anderlecht (UEFA Europa League)

Anderlecht vs PAOK Prediction

Stats suggest a finely balanced second leg. The prediction model gives Anderlecht a 45% chance of winning on the night, with a 45% probability of a draw and only 10% for a PAOK away victory. That aligns with the first-leg evidence: Anderlecht have yet to lose in the competition and already proved they can manage PAOK’s attack away from home.

Anderlecht’s defensive numbers are slightly stronger, and their ability to score at both ends of matches hints at good game management. PAOK, however, remain dangerous; they have already produced a 3-goal away performance in this Europa League campaign and will likely be more aggressive knowing they must overturn a deficit.

Given Anderlecht’s edge in defensive solidity, home advantage at Lotto Park, and the high combined probability of home win or draw (90%), the most likely match flow is Anderlecht controlling the tempo, allowing PAOK spells of pressure but limiting clear chances. A relatively tight, mid-scoring game looks more probable than a shootout.

Predicted Score: Anderlecht 1-1 PAOK

Anderlecht Recent Form

Anderlecht’s recent Europa League form reads as unbeaten, with 2 wins and 1 draw from 3 matches. They have scored 5 goals and conceded only 2, averaging 1.7 scored and 0.7 conceded per game. Their last five form index stands at 78 in overall results, with an attack index of 38 and a notably strong defence index of 85, underlining how difficult they have been to break down.

PAOK Recent Form

PAOK also come into this match with 2 wins and 1 defeat from 3 Europa League fixtures. They have matched Anderlecht’s 5 goals scored but conceded 3, for an average of 1.7 scored and 1.0 conceded per game. Their last five form index is 67, with attack at 38 and defence at 77. While still solid, these numbers sit slightly below Anderlecht’s, particularly on the defensive side.

Anderlecht Possible Starting Lineup

GK: C. Coosemans or J. Heekeren; Defenders: L. Augustinsson, G. Biancone, L. Hey, M. N'Diaye, K. Sardella; Midfielders: E. Llansana, I. Camara, M. Stroeykens, O. Antman, N. Saliba; Forwards: D. Sikan, A. Bertaccini, M. Cvetkovic, E. Dao.

Anderlecht have a deep squad listed, with multiple defensive options and a mix of experienced and young attacking players. Their previous use of both 4-4-2 and 4-3-3 suggests they can either pair two forwards, such as D. Sikan with a partner, or use a lone striker supported by wide midfielders like O. Antman. With no official injuries reported, the coach can prioritise balance, likely leaning towards a structure that protects the existing aggregate lead while still offering counter-attacking threat.

PAOK Possible Starting Lineup

GK: J. Pavlenka or A. Tsiftsis; Defenders: A. Baba, Elustondo, P. Hatzidiakos, J. Kenny, L. Lyratzis; Midfielders: M. Camara, S. Meïté, D. Pelkas, K. Despodov, G. Konstantelias, A. Živković, Taison, B. Santamaría, C. Zafeiris; Forwards: T. Ali, A. Jeremejeff, M. Balde.

PAOK have consistently used a 4-2-3-1 in the Europa League, and their squad composition supports that shape: a solid back four, a double pivot anchored by players like M. Camara or S. Meïté, and several creative midfielders (D. Pelkas, K. Despodov, A. Živković, Taison) who can operate behind a central striker such as T. Ali or A. Jeremejeff. With no listed absences, PAOK should be able to field an attacking lineup as they chase the tie.

Anderlecht Team News

No significant absences reported.

PAOK Team News

No significant absences reported.

Injuries & Suspensions

Anderlecht:

  • None reported.

PAOK:

  • None reported.

Betting Tips: Anderlecht vs PAOK

Exactly 3 distinct markets are considered below, combining probability estimates, tournament form, and available odds.

  • Result Tip: Double chance Anderlecht or Draw. With a 45% chance of an Anderlecht win and 45% for the draw, the combined probability of the hosts avoiding defeat is 90 out of 100. The 1x2 market from major bookmakers prices the home win between 2.80 and 2.94 (implied 33.3%–35.7%) and the draw between 3.00 and 3.15 (31.7%–33.3%), while the away win sits shorter at 2.55–2.68 (37.3%–39.2%), making PAOK a slight market favourite. However, given Anderlecht’s unbeaten run and first-leg away win, the conservative angle is to back Anderlecht not to lose via a double-chance selection.
  • Goals Tip: Over 1.5 total goals. Both sides average 1.7 goals scored per match in this Europa League campaign, and PAOK’s games in particular have often been open, with 2 of their 3 fixtures clearing the 1.5-goal line. Anderlecht’s under/over profile also shows at least 2 goals in the majority of their matches. With PAOK forced to chase the tie and Anderlecht dangerous on the counter, over 1.5 goals looks a solid baseline. Odds for this line are typically short but can be combined in multiples; check current prices with your preferred bookmaker.
  • Value Tip: Draw in the Match Winner market. The draw is priced between 3.00 and 3.15 across 1xBet, Betano, and Dafabet, implying a probability range of roughly 31.7%–33.3%. That compares favourably with the 45% draw probability from the prediction model. Anderlecht can afford a stalemate to progress, and their defensive numbers (0.7 goals conceded per game) support a controlled, lower-risk approach. Given PAOK’s need to attack but their difficulty breaking down Anderlecht in the first leg, the draw offers interesting value at these odds.

Odds are accurate at the time of writing and subject to change. Please gamble responsibly.

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