The Town vs North Texas Prediction: Key Stats and Betting Tips

The Town welcome North Texas to PayPal Park on 19 July 2026 in an intriguing MLS Next Pro Group Stage clash between two sides heading in different directions. The hosts are flying high in the Pacific Division and well placed in the Eastern Conference picture, while the visitors are battling inconsistency despite flashes of attacking quality.

With The Town sitting on 28 points and boasting one of the more potent attacks in the competition, this fixture is a key opportunity to consolidate their top‑eight Eastern Conference status and maintain momentum toward the play-offs. North Texas, six points back on 22, need a statement result on the road to stay in touch with the postseason race and to show they can cope with one of the division’s most efficient home sides.

Recent head-to-head meetings between The Town and North Texas have been tight and often dramatic, including penalty shootouts and narrow wins. That history, combined with The Town’s strong home numbers and North Texas’ volatile form, makes this a compelling betting and tactical matchup for MLS Next Pro followers.

The Town vs North Texas Key Stats

• The Town have 28 points from 16 matches with 37 goals scored and 19 conceded, and have not drawn a single game this season (9 wins, 7 losses).
• The most recent meeting on 24 May 2026 at Choctaw Stadium finished 2-2, with The Town winning 4-2 on penalties after extra time.
• In 2026 team statistics, The Town average 2.4 goals scored and 1.3 conceded per match, while North Texas average 1.8 scored and 1.5 conceded across 16 games.

The Town vs North Texas — Tale of the Tape

• Position: 4 vs 5
• Points: 28 vs 22
• Goals For: 37 vs 26
• Goals Against: 19 vs 21
• Clean Sheets: The Town 2, North Texas 2 (2026 season statistics)

In the Pacific Division, The Town sit 4th with 28 points from 16 matches and a healthy goal difference of +18 (37 scored, 19 conceded). They are also 8th in the broader Eastern Conference table with the same record, placing them firmly in the play-off conversation. Their profile is that of a high-variance, attack-minded side: no draws, plenty of goals, and a strong home record of 5 wins and 2 defeats with 20 scored and just 5 conceded.

North Texas are 5th in the Frontier Division and 11th in the Eastern Conference, on 22 points from 16 games with a goal difference of +5 (26 for, 21 against). Their away record is more fragile: 3 wins and 7 losses in 10 road fixtures, with 11 goals scored and 13 conceded. While their overall defensive numbers are respectable, the combination of a weaker away attack and The Town’s prolific home scoring suggests the visitors will have to be far more efficient in both boxes to take anything from PayPal Park.

The Town vs North Texas Key Matchups

The Town attack vs North Texas back line

The Town’s attacking unit is the clear strength of their side. Across 16 matches in 2026, they have scored 38 goals in all competitions counted in the statistics, averaging 2.4 per game, and an even more impressive 2.9 per match at home. Their biggest home win is a 6-1 scoreline, underlining their capacity to run away with games when they get on top.

North Texas, by contrast, concede an average of 1.5 goals per match, both home and away, and have allowed 15 goals in 10 away games. While they have managed 2 clean sheets overall, their defensive profile shows vulnerability across all phases of the game, with goals conceded spread fairly evenly across the 90 minutes. If The Town maintain their usual tempo and chance creation, the North Texas back line will be under sustained pressure.

North Texas transition threat vs The Town defensive concentration

North Texas’ attack is not to be underestimated. They have scored 28 goals in 16 matches, with a strong 2.7 goals-per-game average at home and a more modest 1.2 away. Their biggest away win of 4-1 shows they can be ruthless on the counter when the game opens up. Against a The Town side that pushes numbers forward and has failed to score in only 3 of 16 games, there will be spaces to exploit in transition.

The Town’s defensive record is solid at home, conceding just 5 goals in 7 matches (0.7 per game), but they are less secure on the road and can be drawn into open, end-to-end contests. The key question is whether North Texas can translate their sporadic attacking bursts into consistent away productivity against a side that tends to dominate territory and possession at PayPal Park.

Head-to-Head: Last Meetings

This fixture has produced a mix of tight contests, penalty drama, and occasional heavy wins, with both sides enjoying success at different times and venues.

• 24 May 2026: North Texas 2-2 The Town (MLS Next Pro, Group Stage – The Town won 4-2 on penalties at Choctaw Stadium)
• 20 October 2025: The Town 3-0 North Texas (MLS Next Pro, Round of 16 at PayPal Park)
• 24 April 2025: North Texas 2-0 The Town (MLS Next Pro, Regular Season - 8 at Choctaw Stadium)
• 13 May 2024: The Town 1-0 North Texas (MLS Next Pro, Regular Season - 12 at PayPal Park)
• 6 April 2024: North Texas 1-1 The Town (MLS Next Pro, Regular Season - 5 – North Texas won 5-4 on penalties at Choctaw Stadium)

The Town vs North Texas Prediction

Stats suggest a finely balanced contest in terms of outright result probabilities, but with The Town holding the edge. The prediction model gives The Town a 45% chance of victory, the draw also at 45%, and North Texas just 10%. That aligns with the standings picture: The Town are stronger in the table, more efficient at home, and come into this match with better recent form and attacking numbers.

The comparison indices heavily favour The Town across form, attack, and overall strength, and the head-to-head pattern in recent years has generally seen The Town perform well at PayPal Park. North Texas’ away record (3 wins, 7 losses) and their tendency to concede 1.5 goals per game make it difficult to back them to win outright, though their scoring ability means they are capable of making this competitive.

Given the relatively high draw probability and The Town’s tendency to be involved in open games, a narrow home win or a scoring draw looks the most plausible outcome. With no precise goal prediction available from the model, a conservative scoreline feels appropriate.

Predicted Score: The Town 2-1 North Texas

The Town Recent Form

The Town’s recent form in the standings is recorded as LWWLW, reflecting a positive but slightly streaky run. They have won 3 of their last 5 matches, losing the other 2, which fits their season-long profile of high-risk, high-reward football with no draws. Their last-five performance metrics are strong: 14 goals scored and 7 conceded in that span, averaging 2.8 scored and 1.4 conceded per match.

North Texas Recent Form

North Texas show a more erratic pattern with a standings form line of LWLOLLO. That sequence indicates only 2 wins in their last 7 league outings, with multiple defeats and no draws. Over their last five matches in the predictive data, they have scored 6 and conceded 8, averaging 1.2 goals for and 1.6 against, which underlines their struggle to control games and maintain defensive solidity.

The Town Possible Starting Lineup

With no confirmed lineups available, The Town’s selection is likely to be drawn from a deep and youthful squad:

Goalkeepers: Francesco Montali, N. Crockford, C. Lambe, M. Avalos, M. Gomez, A. Sanchez
Defenders: A. Cano, N. Dossmann, M. Floriani, J. Heisner, Jack Jasinski, A. Ling
Midfielders: Z. Bohane, W. Boyce, G. Bracken Serra, N. Buck, N. Fernandez, D. Lorenti, E. Mendoza, Nikko Perez, R. Rajagopal, K. Spivey
Forwards: N. Adimabua, T. Allen, D. Baptista, R. Castro, J. Donnery, Jayden Fitzgerald Boes, Y. Kikuchi, M. Kwende, J. Spivey, S. de Flores

The Town have options across all lines, with multiple attacking players capable of rotating across the front line. Their depth in midfield suggests they can maintain a high tempo and aggressive pressing style at home. Defensively, the presence of several centre-backs and full-backs allows for flexibility between a back four and a more adventurous shape if they choose to overload in attack.

North Texas Possible Starting Lineup

North Texas also bring a large and versatile squad to this clash:

Goalkeepers: E. Dymora, B. Thompson, A. Jordan, N. Montoya
Defenders: Alvaro Augusto, J. Biggar, D. Easterly, J. Gibson, Leandro, Z. Molomo, Enzo Newman, Slade Starnes, Joshua Torquato, L. Vejrostek, C. Wygant
Midfielders: F. Aroyameh, I. Charles, D. García, N. James, M. Luccin, T. Ospina, Umberto Pela, C. Swann
Forwards: D. Baran, J. Contreras, B. Flowers, D. Kimbrough, Ricky Louis, E. Nys, C. Salazar, S. Sedeh, Nicholas Simmonds

North Texas have a blend of youth and experience, particularly in attack where several teenagers are pushing through. Their tactical approach on the road is likely to be compact and counter-attacking, relying on pace and direct play to exploit any gaps left by The Town’s adventurous style. However, with six matches this season where they have failed to score, efficiency in the final third will be crucial.

The Town Team News

No significant absences reported.

North Texas Team News

No significant absences reported.

Injuries & Suspensions

The Town:

• None reported.

North Texas:

• None reported.

Betting Tips: The Town vs North Texas

Here are three betting angles to consider for this MLS Next Pro Group Stage matchup:

• Result Tip: Back The Town Draw No Bet. With a 45% win probability for The Town and 45% for the draw, the home side are favoured over North Texas (10% chance). The Town’s strong home record (5 wins in 7) and better recent form make them the safer side, while the draw cover reflects the high draw probability.
• Goals Tip: Over 2.5 Total Goals. The Town’s matches average 2.4 goals scored and 1.3 conceded per game, while North Texas average 1.8 scored and 1.5 conceded. Both sides have a history of multi-goal encounters, including a 2-2 in their last meeting and a 3-0 and 2-0 in recent head-to-heads. An open contest with at least three goals looks likely.
• Value Tip: Both Teams to Score – Yes. The Town are prolific at home (20 goals in 7 matches) and North Texas have enough attacking threat to nick a goal, even if they are underdogs. Given The Town’s aggressive style and North Texas’ ability to score in bursts, BTTS offers value in a game where the visitors may find success on the counter.

Odds are accurate at the time of writing and subject to change. Please gamble responsibly.