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St. Louis City II vs Portland Timbers II Prediction: Key Stats and Betting Tips

St. Louis City II welcome Portland Timbers II to CITYPARK on 18 July 2026 in a high‑stakes MLS Next Pro Group Stage clash that could reshape the playoff picture in both the Frontier and Pacific divisions. With both sides currently tracking towards the MLS Next Pro Play Offs, this fixture has the feel of a measuring stick game between two of the Western Conference’s most intriguing second teams.

St. Louis City II sit 4th in the Frontier Division with 29 points from 18 matches, and 7th in the Eastern Conference overview, right on the promotion line for the MLS Next Pro Play Offs. Despite a negative goal difference and a worrying recent slump, their home record at CITYPARK remains strong. Portland Timbers II, meanwhile, top the Pacific Division and are 3rd in the Eastern Conference table with 34 points, built on an impressive away record and one of the strongest defensive profiles in the competition.

Playoff positioning is firmly on the line here: St. Louis need to arrest a run of defeats to avoid slipping out of the postseason spots, while Portland can consolidate a top seeding and underline their status as genuine contenders. With a rich recent head‑to‑head history and contrasting form lines, this shapes up as one of the standout MLS Next Pro matches of the Group Stage.

St. Louis City II vs Portland Timbers II Key Stats

  • St. Louis City II have taken 29 points from 18 matches (10 wins, 8 losses, 0 draws) with a 29:30 goal record in the overall conference standings.
  • The last five meetings between these sides at CITYPARK have all seen St. Louis City II avoid defeat in regular time, including a 6-3 win on 24 May 2025 and a penalty shootout victory after a 1-1 draw on 7 April 2024.
  • Portland Timbers II have kept 9 clean sheets in 18 MLS Next Pro 2026 fixtures, including 7 away, underlining one of the best defensive records in the league this season.

St. Louis City II vs Portland Timbers II — Tale of the Tape

  • Position: 4 vs 1 (divisional ranks: St. Louis City II in Frontier Division, Portland Timbers II in Pacific Division)
  • Points: 29 vs 34
  • Goals For: 29 vs 23
  • Goals Against: 30 vs 22
  • Clean Sheets: St. Louis City II 4 vs Portland Timbers II 9

In divisional terms, Portland Timbers II have been the more consistent outfit. They lead the Pacific Division with 34 points from 18 games, winning 11 and losing 7, with a narrow positive goal difference of +1 (23 scored, 22 conceded). Their away form is particularly impressive: 7 wins and just 2 defeats on the road, with only 9 goals conceded across those 9 away fixtures.

St. Louis City II, 4th in the Frontier Division and 7th in the broader Eastern Conference picture, have matched Portland for points-per-game in patches but are far more volatile. They have 10 wins and 8 losses with no draws, scoring 29 and conceding 30. At CITYPARK, however, they are far stronger: 6 wins and 2 defeats at home, with 16 goals scored and 11 conceded. The standings suggest a clash between Portland’s defensive solidity and St. Louis’ high‑variance, attack‑first approach.

St. Louis City II vs Portland Timbers II Key Matchups

St. Louis City II attack unit vs Colin Griffith

Player‑specific scoring data for St. Louis City II is not available, so the focus shifts to their collective attacking profile against Portland’s standout individual from the league’s top lists, Colin Griffith. Griffith appears across the top scorers, top assists, top yellow cards and top red cards lists for MLS Next Pro 2026 with Portland Timbers II, having made 1 appearance as a forward. While he has yet to register a goal or assist in that outing, his presence as a leading rated player indicates he is central to Portland’s attacking plans.

St. Louis, by contrast, spread their goals: they average 1.8 goals per game overall, rising to 2.3 at home. They have hit four goals in a home win this season and historically put six past Portland at CITYPARK in May 2025. The matchup here is less about one star versus another and more about whether Portland’s attack, led by Griffith and a rotating cast of forwards like Andrew Guerra and Daniel Xavier Cervantes Michel, can be efficient enough against a St. Louis side that both scores and concedes at high volumes.

St. Louis City II defensive discipline vs Portland Timbers II defensive structure

Another key battle lies in defensive discipline. St. Louis City II’s season stats show 4 clean sheets but also a tendency to concede in bursts, particularly in the 61–75 minute window where a significant share of goals against arrive. Portland, by contrast, have 9 clean sheets and concede just 1.0 goal per game away from home.

Portland’s back line, featuring defenders such as B. Alex, C. Ferguson and Charles Ondo, is supported by a midfield group that includes Lucas Fernandez-Kim and V. Enriquez. Their ability to manage game states late on has been crucial, especially away. If St. Louis cannot tighten up their discipline in the second half, Portland’s more balanced defensive structure and strong clean‑sheet record could tilt the contest their way despite St. Louis’ historical dominance at CITYPARK.

Head-to-Head: Last Meetings

These two sides have built one of the more entertaining rivalries in MLS Next Pro, with high‑scoring encounters and several dramatic home wins for St. Louis City II. Recent seasons have produced goals, momentum swings and even a penalty shootout.

  • 05 October 2025: Portland Timbers II 2-1 St. Louis City II (MLS Next Pro)
  • 24 May 2025: St. Louis City II 6-3 Portland Timbers II (MLS Next Pro)
  • 07 April 2024: St. Louis City II 1-1 Portland Timbers II (MLS Next Pro, St. Louis won 5-3 on penalties)
  • 19 August 2023: St. Louis City II 4-1 Portland Timbers II (MLS Next Pro)
  • 26 May 2023: Portland Timbers II 1-2 St. Louis City II (MLS Next Pro)

St. Louis City II vs Portland Timbers II Prediction

Stats suggest a finely balanced matchup between St. Louis’ home strength and Portland’s superior recent form and defensive metrics. The prediction model rates Portland Timbers II as the more resilient side, giving them a 45% chance of victory, with the draw also at 45% and St. Louis City II at just 10%. That “win or draw” edge for Portland is backed up by their 60% recent form rating over the last five matches and stronger defensive comparison indices.

However, the head‑to‑head at CITYPARK heavily favours St. Louis, who have repeatedly found ways to win at home, including scorelines of 6-3, 4-1 and 3-1 in recent seasons. St. Louis also average 2.3 goals per home game this year, while Portland concede just 1.0 on their travels. This points towards a tight, tactical contest rather than another wild shootout. With both the draw and Portland win rated equally likely, and St. Louis in poor current form despite their home record, a low‑scoring stalemate or narrow away success feels the most probable outcome.

Predicted Score: St. Louis City II 1-1 Portland Timbers II

St. Louis City II Recent Form

Across their last 18 MLS Next Pro fixtures this season, St. Louis City II have been extremely streaky. They opened with an eight‑match winning run, but that was followed by a four‑game losing streak, then a brief recovery with two more wins, and now another run of defeats reflected in their current “LLLLWO” conference form line. In their last five games specifically, they have scored 5 and conceded 13, averaging 1 goal for and 2.6 against, which underlines just how fragile they have become defensively.

Portland Timbers II Recent Form

Portland Timbers II arrive in considerably better shape. Their broader season form reads as a sequence of wins and losses with no draws, but their last five matches show a 60% form rating, with 8 goals scored and 7 conceded (1.6 for and 1.4 against per game). The pattern “WOWLWL” in the conference table highlights inconsistency, yet their ceiling is high and they tend to respond well after setbacks, aided by a strong away record and a league‑leading tally of 9 clean sheets.

St. Louis City II Possible Starting Lineup

With no confirmed lineups provided, a likely core group for St. Louis City II at CITYPARK could include: goalkeepers such as B. Lundt or C. Welsh; defenders like K. Hiebert, L. MacNaughton, F. Fall and S. Paris; midfield options including E. Löwen, T. Ostrák, M. Perez and C. Pearson; and attackers such as Jeong Sang-Bin, P. Ault, C. Forcellini and Brendan McSorley.

St. Louis have plenty of depth, particularly in attack, where a mix of young prospects (for example, C. Glover and L. Cornelius) and more established names like Jeong Sang-Bin can rotate across the front line. Tactically, they are likely to set up in an attack‑minded shape at home, looking to press high and exploit their strong scoring record at CITYPARK. The key question is whether the defensive unit, anchored by experienced figures like L. MacNaughton and K. Hiebert, can limit the kind of transitions that Portland thrive on.

Portland Timbers II Possible Starting Lineup

Portland Timbers II have a deep squad with multiple options at each level of the pitch. In goal, H. Sulte and S. Joseph are among the candidates. The defensive line could be built around B. Alex, C. Ferguson, Charles Ondo and S. Jura, while midfield options include Lucas Fernandez-Kim, V. Enriquez, E. Izoita and B. VanVoorhis. In attack, Colin Griffith, Andrew Guerra, Daniel Xavier Cervantes Michel, N. Santos and B. Barjolo give Portland a variety of profiles up front.

Given their excellent away record and clean‑sheet numbers, Portland are likely to prioritise compactness and structure, then break quickly through their pacey forwards. Their ability to rotate between technical midfielders and more direct wide players makes them adaptable to game state, and that tactical flexibility could be decisive if they can frustrate St. Louis early.

St. Louis City II Team News

No significant absences reported.

Portland Timbers II Team News

No significant absences reported.

Injuries & Suspensions

St. Louis City II:

  • None reported.

Portland Timbers II:

  • None reported.

Betting Tips: St. Louis City II vs Portland Timbers II

Exactly 3 distinct betting angles based on current stats and probabilities:

  • Result Tip: Back Portland Timbers II in the Double Chance (Draw or Away Win). The prediction model gives Portland a 45% chance to win and the draw another 45%, with St. Louis at just 10%. Combined with Portland’s 7 away wins in 9 and 9 clean sheets overall, the safety of covering both the draw and away win looks justified.
  • Goals Tip: Under 3.5 total goals. Despite some high‑scoring H2H clashes in the past, this season’s numbers point to a tighter contest: Portland matches average 1.4 goals scored and 1.4 conceded, and only 2 of their 18 games have gone over 2.5 goals. St. Louis’ attack is strong, but Portland’s away defensive record (1.0 conceded per game) suggests a more controlled scoreline.
  • Value Tip: Portland Timbers II to keep a clean sheet (small stake). With 7 away clean sheets from 9 road games and only 3 matches all season in which they failed to keep the opposition to one goal or fewer, backing Portland’s defence offers potential value, especially against a St. Louis side whose recent five‑game spell has produced just 5 goals.

Odds are accurate at the time of writing and subject to change. Please gamble responsibly.

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