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Portland Timbers II vs Tacoma Defiance Prediction: Key Stats and Betting Tips

Portland Timbers II welcome Tacoma Defiance to Providence Park in MLS Next Pro Group Stage action on 31 May 2026, with both sides looking to strengthen their positions in a tightly packed Pacific Division. The hosts arrive in better shape in the standings, while Tacoma are trying to claw their way up after an inconsistent start.

Portland sit near the top of their divisional table, but their negative goal difference underlines how fine the margins have been. Tacoma, meanwhile, are further down the Pacific Division and Eastern Conference ladders, yet their recent league form string suggests they are capable of putting together winning streaks. With a long and colourful head-to-head history between these Northwest rivals, this fixture again shapes as one of the standout clashes in MLS Next Pro.

Stats suggest a balanced contest with a slight edge to the home side, and prediction models lean heavily towards a “Portland Timbers II or draw” outcome. For bettors and neutral fans looking for Portland Timbers II vs Tacoma Defiance predictions, the blend of league form, historical meetings at Providence Park, and both teams’ scoring profiles points towards a tight, tactical encounter rather than a goal-fest.

Portland Timbers II vs Tacoma Defiance Key Stats

  • Portland Timbers II have taken 20 points from 11 league matches, winning 6 and losing 5 with a 14-15 goals record.
  • In their last three MLS Next Pro meetings at Providence Park, Portland Timbers II have beaten Tacoma Defiance 2-1 on both 19 May 2025 and 25 August 2025.
  • Portland Timbers II average 1.4 goals scored and 1.6 conceded per match this season, while keeping 4 clean sheets across 11 fixtures.

Portland Timbers II vs Tacoma Defiance — Tale of the Tape

  • Position: 2 vs 6 (Pacific Division)
  • Points: 20 vs 14
  • Goals For: 14 vs 13
  • Goals Against: 15 vs 18
  • Clean Sheets: Portland Timbers II 4, Tacoma Defiance 3

In the Pacific Division, Portland Timbers II are ranked 2nd with 20 points from 11 matches, boasting 6 wins and no draws but already 5 defeats. They have scored 14 and conceded 15, giving them a goal difference of -1. Despite that negative differential, their parallel ranking of 5th in the broader Eastern Conference, also on 20 points from 11 games, places them firmly in the “Promotion - MLS Next Pro (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)” zone.

Tacoma Defiance are 6th in the Pacific Division on 14 points from 12 matches, with a record of 5 wins and 7 losses and a goal difference of -5 (13 scored, 18 conceded). In the Eastern Conference table they sit 11th, again on 14 points from 12 games. Both teams have identical total goals scored (15) and conceded (18) when looking at detailed season statistics, but Portland have been slightly more efficient in turning performances into points and occupy the superior league position as a result.

Portland Timbers II vs Tacoma Defiance Key Matchups

Colin Griffith vs Tacoma Defensive Unit

Portland’s standout name across the attacking and disciplinary leaderboards is Colin Griffith. The 21-year-old forward appears as the club’s top entry in the scoring, assists, yellow cards and red cards charts for MLS Next Pro this season. He has made 1 league appearance so far, operating as a forward, with 0 goals and 0 assists and no cards shown.

While the raw numbers are modest at this early stage of his campaign, Griffith’s presence across multiple statistical categories underlines his importance to Portland’s structure. He will be up against a Tacoma back line that has conceded 19 goals in 12 league matches, an average of 1.6 per game, and 11 goals in just 5 away fixtures (2.2 per away game). If Griffith can occupy central defenders and draw fouls without adding to his card count, he could help unlock a defence that has struggled particularly on the road.

Head-to-Head: Last Meetings

These two sides have a rich recent history in MLS Next Pro, with Portland Timbers II and Tacoma Defiance trading blows home and away since 2022. Across the last five listed meetings, Tacoma have enjoyed some big home wins, but Portland have been strong at Providence Park, especially in 2025. Overall, the record is finely balanced, reflecting the rivalry’s competitive edge.

  • 25 August 2025: Portland Timbers II 2-1 Tacoma Defiance (MLS Next Pro)
  • 28 July 2025: Tacoma Defiance 1-2 Portland Timbers II (MLS Next Pro)
  • 19 May 2025: Portland Timbers II 2-1 Tacoma Defiance (MLS Next Pro)
  • 9 September 2024: Tacoma Defiance 5-2 Portland Timbers II (MLS Next Pro)
  • 1 July 2024: Tacoma Defiance 1-0 Portland Timbers II (MLS Next Pro)

Portland Timbers II vs Tacoma Defiance Prediction

Form and probability metrics point towards a tight match with a slight home advantage. Portland’s league form string of “LWWLW” shows a high-variance side capable of both strong wins and disappointing defeats. Tacoma’s “WWLWW” suggests they are currently on an upswing, with four wins from their last five league outings, but their overall record and away defensive numbers still lag behind Portland’s positionally.

Head-to-head trends at Providence Park favour Portland, with back-to-back 2-1 home wins over Tacoma in 2025. Prediction models give Portland a 45% chance of victory and the draw also at 45%, leaving Tacoma with just a 10% win probability. That, combined with both teams averaging around 1.3–1.4 goals scored and 1.6 conceded per match, suggests a low-scoring, cagey contest where the hosts are more likely to avoid defeat than to run away with it.

Predicted Score: Portland Timbers II 1-0 Tacoma Defiance

Portland Timbers II League Form

LWWLW

Tacoma Defiance League Form

WWLWW

Portland Timbers II Possible Starting Lineup

M. Deisenhofer (GK); B. Alex, C. Ferguson, Charles Ondo, C. Tommy (Defenders); C. Cruthers, V. Enriquez, Lucas Fernandez-Kim, M. Kissel (Midfielders); Colin Griffith, Andrew Guerra (Forwards).

Portland Timbers II have a deep squad with multiple options at the back, including B. Alex, Charles Ondo and C. Tommy, giving them flexibility in how they structure the defensive line in front of the goalkeeper group headed by M. Deisenhofer and H. Sulte. In midfield, players such as C. Cruthers, V. Enriquez and Lucas Fernandez-Kim offer energy and ball progression, while in attack the likes of Colin Griffith and Andrew Guerra provide focal points. With 4 clean sheets already this season, Portland’s likely approach will be to balance their attacking ambition with the defensive solidity that has underpinned their climb into the play-off positions.

Tacoma Defiance Possible Starting Lineup

M. Anchor (GK); Kevin Bonilla, Andrew Brown, C. Baker, S. Hawkins (Defenders); X. Gnaulati, P. Kingston, Daniel Robles, N. Petković (Midfielders); Y. Tsukanome, R. Jauregui (Forwards).

Tacoma Defiance have several defensive options, including Kevin Bonilla, Andrew Brown and S. Hawkins, who will be tasked with tightening up an away back line that has conceded 11 goals in 5 road games. In midfield, creative and box-to-box profiles such as X. Gnaulati, P. Kingston and Daniel Robles can help them control phases of possession and support the front line. Up front, attackers like Y. Tsukanome and R. Jauregui provide pace and movement, crucial if Tacoma are to exploit any spaces left by an adventurous Portland side. Despite their overall negative goal difference, Tacoma’s recent “WWLWW” form suggests they can be dangerous if they find rhythm in transition.

Portland Timbers II Team News

No significant absences reported.

Tacoma Defiance Team News

No significant absences reported.

Injuries & Suspensions

Portland Timbers II:

  • None reported.

Tacoma Defiance:

  • None reported.

Betting Tips: Portland Timbers II vs Tacoma Defiance

Exactly 3 distinct tips from different markets:

  • Result Tip: Back “Portland Timbers II or Draw” in the double chance market. The prediction model gives Portland a 45% win probability and the draw also 45%, with Tacoma at just 10%. Combined with Portland’s strong home H2H record against Tacoma and their higher league position, the double chance angle is strongly supported, even without quoted odds.
  • Goals Tip: Consider a conservative goals position such as under 3.5 goals. Both teams average around 1.3–1.4 goals scored and 1.6 conceded per game, and the prediction guidance flags both sides under 2.5 goals. Recent Providence Park league meetings have finished 2-1 to Portland, reinforcing the likelihood of a competitive but not excessively high-scoring match, though no specific odds are available.
  • Value Tip: Look towards a Portland win in a one-goal margin scenario (for example, correct scores like 1-0 or 2-1) as a value angle. Portland’s last two home league wins over Tacoma have both been 2-1, and the current prediction leans to a narrow home success. With Portland holding 4 clean sheets and Tacoma conceding heavily away, a tight Portland victory is a plausible higher-return option, even if exact prices are not listed.

How to Watch Portland Timbers II vs Tacoma Defiance

Broadcast coverage varies by region. General guide:

  • Spain: Movistar LaLiga
  • UK: Premier Sports
  • Australia: beIN Sports
  • India: FanCode
  • MENA: beIN Sports
  • South America: ESPN / Disney+
  • Africa: SuperSport

Odds are accurate at the time of writing and subject to change. Please gamble responsibly.

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