North Texas vs St. Louis City II Prediction: Key Stats and Betting Tips

North Texas welcome St. Louis City II to Choctaw Stadium on 5 July 2026 in a fascinating MLS Next Pro Group Stage clash that could reshape the Frontier Division picture. The hosts are chasing consistency after a mixed start, while the visitors arrive with one of the strongest records in the conference despite some recent stumbles.

In the Frontier Division standings, North Texas sit 5th with 19 points from 14 matches, clinging to the playoff race but with no margin for error. St. Louis City II, by contrast, are 3rd in the Frontier Division and 5th in the Eastern Conference overall with 29 points from 16 games, currently tracking towards the MLS Next Pro play-offs. That context makes this a key MLS Next Pro prediction fixture for fans looking at North Texas vs St. Louis City II odds, betting tips and form analysis.

With both sides averaging close to two goals scored per game in 2026 and a rich recent history of high-scoring encounters, this North Texas vs St. Louis City II preview points towards another open, attacking contest under the lights at Choctaw Stadium.

North Texas vs St. Louis City II Key Stats

• North Texas have 19 points from 14 matches in 2026, with 23 goals scored and 20 conceded in the Frontier Division.
• Across the last five MLS Next Pro meetings listed, St. Louis City II have three wins to North Texas’s two, including a 2-0 home victory on 30 May 2026.
• In 2026 tournament statistics, St. Louis City II have kept 4 clean sheets from 16 games, compared to just 1 for North Texas.

North Texas vs St. Louis City II — Tale of the Tape

• Position: 5 vs 3 (Frontier Division)
• Points: 19 vs 29
• Goals For: 23 vs 28
• Goals Against: 20 vs 25
• Clean Sheets: North Texas 1, St. Louis City II 4 (tournament statistics)

Standings underline the contrast between these sides. North Texas have taken 19 points from 14 matches, winning 6 and losing 8 with no draws. Their goal difference of +3 (23 scored, 20 conceded) suggests they are competitive in most games but lack the control to turn narrow margins consistently in their favour.

St. Louis City II have played two matches more and sit on 29 points from 16 fixtures, winning 10 and losing 6. They have scored 28 and conceded 25, also with a goal difference of +3, but crucially they have converted more of their tight contests into victories. With 6 home wins and 4 away wins in 2026, they look like a more complete unit, and their higher conference rank (5th in the Eastern Conference) reflects a side firmly in the play-off frame.

North Texas vs St. Louis City II Key Matchups

North Texas attack vs St. Louis City II defence

Without individual top scorers data, the focus shifts to unit performance. North Texas average 1.8 goals per game in 2026 (25 in 14 across all venues), with that figure rising to 2.6 at home. They have produced a biggest home win of 5-1 and regularly find the net in the 31–45 and 76–90 minute windows, indicating they can surge just before the interval and late in matches.

St. Louis City II’s defence has been more fragile away from home, conceding an average of 2.0 goals per game on their travels (16 against in 8 away matches). Their goals-against minute distribution shows vulnerability particularly between 31–45 and 61–75 minutes, which overlaps with North Texas’s strong attacking phases. If the hosts can sustain pressure in those windows, they are capable of breaching a back line that, while capable of clean sheets, can be exposed when the tempo rises.

St. Louis City II attack vs North Texas back line

St. Louis City II boast 31 goals in 16 games in 2026, an average of 1.9 per match, with a particularly strong home output (2.3 goals per game). Even away, they average 1.6 goals, and their biggest wins include a 4-0 home result and a 2-0 away success. They spread their scoring well across the 16–30, 46–60 and 76–90 minute segments, suggesting a sustained attacking threat.

North Texas have conceded 23 goals in 14 matches (1.6 per game), and at home they allow 1.8 per match. Their minute distribution shows a relatively even spread of goals conceded across 16–90 minutes, with no single phase where they are consistently secure. With only 1 clean sheet recorded in 2026, they will likely need to outscore St. Louis rather than rely on shutting them out, especially given the visitors’ ability to score in bursts.

Head-to-Head: Last Meetings

These two sides have built a lively rivalry in MLS Next Pro, with plenty of goals and momentum swings. Recent meetings show St. Louis City II holding a slight edge, but North Texas have delivered some big home performances of their own. The following list covers all the most recent clashes provided.

• 30 May 2026: St. Louis City II 2-0 North Texas (MLS Next Pro, Group Stage)
• 17 August 2025: North Texas 1-3 St. Louis City II (MLS Next Pro, Regular Season - 30)
• 5 June 2025: St. Louis City II 2-0 North Texas (MLS Next Pro, Regular Season - 16)
• 10 March 2025: North Texas 0-3 St. Louis City II (MLS Next Pro, Regular Season - 1)
• 3 November 2024: North Texas 3-0 St. Louis City II (MLS Next Pro, Conference - Finals)

North Texas vs St. Louis City II Prediction

Stats suggest a finely balanced contest despite St. Louis City II’s superior league position. The prediction model gives North Texas a 35% chance of victory, the draw also 35%, and St. Louis City II a 30% chance. That aligns with the “win or draw” angle for the hosts, especially given their strong home scoring rate and St. Louis’s recent run of four defeats in their last eight after an eight-game winning streak earlier in the campaign.

However, St. Louis City II’s historical success in this matchup — including three straight wins in 2025–2026 before North Texas’s 2024 play-off triumph — cannot be ignored. With both sides averaging close to two goals per game and neither defence particularly watertight, the match flow points towards an open, high-energy encounter where momentum could swing multiple times. Given that the goals fields are threshold markers rather than exact scores, the safest projection is a narrow home edge or a stalemate in a game with goals at both ends.

Predicted Score: North Texas 2-2 St. Louis City II

North Texas Recent Form

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St. Louis City II Recent Form

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North Texas Possible Starting Lineup

Goalkeepers: B. Thompson, E. Dymora; Defenders: Alvaro Augusto, J. Biggar, D. Easterly, J. Gibson, Leandro, Z. Molomo, Enzo Newman, Slade Starnes, Joshua Torquato; Midfielders: F. Aroyameh, I. Charles, D. García, N. James, M. Luccin, T. Ospina, Umberto Pela, C. Swann; Forwards: D. Baran, J. Contreras, B. Flowers, Ricky Louis, E. Nys, C. Salazar, S. Sedeh, Nicholas Simmonds.

North Texas have a deep, youthful squad with multiple options in every line. With no fixed lineup data, selection is likely to prioritise attacking width and pace, given their strong home scoring record of 2.6 goals per game. The presence of several specialist defenders and a cluster of attackers allows for a flexible 4-3-3 or 4-2-3-1 shape, but the lack of clean sheets suggests the emphasis will remain on outscoring opponents rather than controlling games defensively.

St. Louis City II Possible Starting Lineup

Goalkeepers: B. Lundt, N. Martinez, L. McPartlin, C. Welsh; Defenders: J. Andrews, E. Chavez, A. De Gannes, F. Fall, K. Hiebert, O. Jorgensen, Z. Lillington, L. MacNaughton, M. Fall, S. Paris, T. Pearce, T. Totland; Midfielders: O. Chapman, D. Dowling, A. Gbadehan, C. Gonzalez, C. Hamler, M. Joyner, A. Jundt, E. Löwen, P. McDonald, E. Niles, T. Ostrák, Y. Ota, C. Pearson, M. Perez, J. Wagoner; Forwards: P. Ault, J. Barclay, E. Carlock, L. Cornelius, C. Forcellini, C. Glover, Jeong Sang-Bin, K. Kraus, M. Levkovsky, R. Lynch, S. Marion, Brendan McSorley, C. Nwankwo, B. Wilson.

St. Louis City II’s squad is notably deep, mixing experienced names like E. Löwen and L. MacNaughton with a large group of emerging talents. Their 2026 record of 31 goals in 16 games reflects a multi-source attack rather than reliance on a single striker. With four clean sheets and a strong home record, they have the tools to set up in a compact 4-4-2 or 4-3-3, using their midfield depth to press and transition quickly, especially in the 46–60 and 76–90 minute windows where they often score.

North Texas Team News

No significant absences reported.

St. Louis City II Team News

No significant absences reported.

Injuries & Suspensions

North Texas:

• None reported.

St. Louis City II:

• None reported.

Betting Tips: North Texas vs St. Louis City II

Exactly 3 distinct tips from different markets:

• Result Tip: Double chance North Texas or Draw. With North Texas and the draw each given a 35% chance and St. Louis City II at 30%, the hosts are marginally favoured to avoid defeat, especially given their strong home scoring rate and the “win or draw” angle suggested by the prediction.
• Goals Tip: Over 1.5 total goals. North Texas average 1.8 goals scored per game and concede 1.6, while St. Louis City II average 1.9 scored and 1.7 conceded. Recent H2H clashes have regularly produced multiple goals, making a line of over 1.5 look a solid choice.
• Value Tip: Both teams to score. North Texas have failed to score in only 5 of 14 matches, and St. Louis City II have failed to score just twice in 16. With neither side particularly secure at the back and the H2H history including several high-scoring matches, BTTS offers attractive value in a game where both attacks are stronger than the defences.

How to Watch North Texas vs St. Louis City II

Broadcast rights vary by region; check local listings or the official tournament website for details.

Odds are accurate at the time of writing and subject to change. Please gamble responsibly.