Kairat Almaty vs Levski Sofia Prediction: Key Stats and Betting Tips

This UEFA Champions League 3rd Qualifying Round second leg at Turkestan Arena sets up as a finely balanced tie between Kairat Almaty and Levski Sofia. The Bulgarians hold a narrow 1-0 advantage from the first leg in Sofia on 4 August 2026, leaving everything to play for in Kazakhstan.

Kairat return home needing at least a one-goal win to stay alive, with their strong home scoring record in this Champions League campaign a key source of optimism. Levski, meanwhile, arrive unbeaten in five European matches this season and with three clean sheets already, knowing that an away goal would put them firmly in control.

With a place in the Champions League play-off round at stake, this clash combines Kairat’s solid home form and attacking options with Levski’s more balanced, resilient profile. The betting markets and prediction models see this as almost a coin flip, adding extra intrigue for bettors assessing match winner and goals markets.

Kairat Almaty vs Levski Sofia Key Stats

• Kairat Almaty have played 5 Champions League matches this season, winning 3 and losing 2, with 6 goals scored and 3 conceded.
• The only previous meeting between these sides came on 4 August 2026 in Sofia, where Levski Sofia won 1-0 in the 3rd Qualifying Round.
• In Champions League 2026 statistics, Levski Sofia average 1.8 goals scored per game (9 in 5 matches) and have kept 3 clean sheets.

Kairat Almaty vs Levski Sofia — Tale of the Tape

• Position: Not available vs Not available
• Points: Not available vs Not available
• Goals For: Not available vs Not available
• Goals Against: Not available vs Not available
• Clean Sheets: Kairat Almaty 2; Levski Sofia 3 (Champions League 2026 statistics)

Group or league standings data is not provided for this qualifying round, but the broader Champions League statistics give a clear picture of how both teams have approached this campaign. Kairat have been involved in relatively tight games: across 5 matches they have scored 6 and conceded 3, with an average of 1.2 goals for and 0.6 against per match. Their home fixtures have been particularly productive, averaging 2.0 goals scored and only 0.5 conceded.

Levski’s profile is more assertive in attack while still solid defensively. Over their 5 Champions League outings, they have scored 9 goals (1.8 per game) and conceded just 3 (0.6 per game), with all three of their wins coming at home and both away games ending in draws. Importantly, they remain unbeaten (3 wins, 2 draws, 0 losses), underlining why prediction models and odds-makers slightly lean towards Levski avoiding defeat again in this second leg.

Kairat Almaty vs Levski Sofia Key Matchups

Kairat attacking unit vs Reinaldo (Levski Sofia)

Kairat’s goals in this Champions League run have been spread rather than concentrated in one star, but their overall attacking numbers at home — 4 goals in 2 matches, averaging 2.0 per game — suggest a front line capable of breaking down visiting defences. They will be chasing at least one goal from the outset, and their tendency to score late (a significant share of their goals coming between 76–90 minutes in this campaign) could be crucial if the tie is still in the balance.

For Levski, Reinaldo stands out as a key attacking threat. The 24-year-old attacker has 2 goals in 5 Champions League appearances this season, all from the starting XI, and has been substituted in each of those matches, suggesting he is used for high-intensity minutes rather than full games. Even with only 75 minutes recorded across those appearances, his two goals underline his efficiency in front of goal. If Levski can engineer transitions or set-piece situations for Reinaldo, an away goal could be decisive.

Álex Centelles (Levski Sofia) vs Kairat wide threats

On the left side of Levski’s defence, Álex Centelles has been an important two-way contributor. In 5 Champions League appearances (2 starts, 3 substitute outings, 69 minutes), he has already provided 1 assist. That creative contribution from deep and wide positions adds another dimension to Levski’s build-up, particularly when they look to relieve pressure and counter.

Centelles will likely have to balance his forward runs with defensive discipline against Kairat’s wide players and overlapping full-backs, who have helped generate Kairat’s strong home scoring record. If he can contain those threats while still picking his moments to deliver quality balls forward, Levski’s left flank could both nullify Kairat and launch dangerous counters.

Head-to-Head: Last Meetings

These clubs have only recently crossed paths in European competition, with the first leg in Sofia providing the only reference point ahead of this return match in Kazakhstan.

• 4 August 2026: Levski Sofia 1-0 Kairat Almaty (UEFA Champions League)

Kairat Almaty vs Levski Sofia Prediction

Stats suggest a tight, tactical second leg. Kairat’s Champions League form line of WWLWL shows a side capable of stringing wins together but also vulnerable, particularly away from home. At Turkestan Arena, however, they have been strong, scoring freely and conceding little. They will likely start on the front foot, using a 4-2-3-1 or 4-3-3 structure that has underpinned their campaign so far.

Levski arrive with a more stable profile: DWWDW in Champions League play, unbeaten in 5, with 3 clean sheets and no failures to score. Their last-five form indices back this up: 73 in overall form, 47 in attack, and 84 in defence, compared to Kairat’s 60 form, 32 attack, and 84 defence. Prediction models give Kairat just a 10% chance of a win in 90 minutes, with 45% each for draw and Levski victory, underlining strong confidence that the visitors avoid defeat.

With goals thresholds in the prediction data set as under-type markers rather than exact scores, the safest read is a low- to medium-scoring contest where Levski’s organisation and counter-punching edge slightly outweigh Kairat’s home advantage. Expect Kairat to push, but Levski’s unbeaten run and superior attacking output over the campaign point to them doing enough to progress.

Predicted Score: Kairat Almaty 1-1 Levski Sofia

Kairat Almaty Recent Form

Kairat’s recent Champions League form is mixed but competitive. Across their last five matches they have recorded three wins and two defeats, with no draws. They have been strong at home, winning both fixtures with a combined 4 goals scored and just 1 conceded. Their defensive record is solid overall, conceding only 3 goals in 5 games, and they have kept 2 clean sheets in the tournament. However, they have failed to score in both of their away defeats, underlining a reliance on home performances.

Levski Sofia Recent Form

Levski’s recent Champions League run has been impressively consistent. Their sequence of DWWDW across five matches reflects an unbeaten side combining resilience and attacking threat. All three wins have come at home, including the 1-0 first-leg victory over Kairat, while both away fixtures have ended in draws. They have scored in every match (9 goals total) and conceded only 3, with 3 clean sheets. This balance of solidity and productivity makes them a difficult opponent to overturn over 90 minutes.

Kairat Almaty Possible Starting Lineup

GK: T. Anarbekov or B. Aldashev; Defenders: L. Kurgin, Lucas Áfrico, Luís Mata, A. Martynovich, E. Tapalov; Midfielders: A. Sadybekov, D. Kasabulat, J. Oksanen, O. Baybek, G. Mendonsa; Forwards: Edmilson, Marc Gual, Jorginho, S. Zeballos.

Kairat’s squad list suggests a blend of experienced defenders such as Lucas Áfrico, Luís Mata and A. Martynovich with a young supporting cast. In midfield, players like A. Sadybekov, D. Kasabulat and J. Oksanen provide options for either a double pivot in a 4-2-3-1 or a more balanced 4-3-3. Up front, the presence of Edmilson, Marc Gual and Jorginho gives Kairat multiple profiles in attack — from penalty-box presence to more mobile wide forwards. Given their strong home scoring record, expect Kairat to field an aggressive lineup with at least three advanced attackers and full-backs encouraged to push on.

Levski Sofia Possible Starting Lineup

GK: M. Lukov; Defenders: Maicon, N. Serafimov, Aldair, Álex Centelles or Hevertton Santos; Midfielders: Serginho, E. El Moubarik, M. Soula, G. Trdin, Everton Bala, A. Oko-Flex; Forwards: Reinaldo, J. Perea, R. Kirilov, M. Sangaré.

Levski’s Champions League statistics show frequent use of 4-3-3 and 4-4-2, and their squad composition supports either shape. At the back, a core of Maicon, N. Serafimov and Aldair provides defensive stability and aerial presence. In midfield, options like Serginho, E. El Moubarik, M. Soula and Everton Bala can form a robust central trio, while A. Oko-Flex offers attacking thrust from wide or advanced midfield. In attack, Reinaldo and J. Perea headline a group that has delivered 9 goals in 5 matches. Expect Levski to set up compact, looking to control central areas and spring forward quickly through their pace and movement up front.

Kairat Almaty Team News

No significant absences reported.

Levski Sofia Team News

No significant absences reported.

Injuries & Suspensions

Kairat Almaty:

• None reported.

Levski Sofia:

• None reported.

Betting Tips: Kairat Almaty vs Levski Sofia

Exactly 3 distinct tips from different markets:

• Result Tip: Double chance: Draw or Levski Sofia. Prediction data gives Kairat only a 10% chance of winning in 90 minutes, with 45% each for draw and away win. The odds markets broadly agree this is close to even, but with Levski slightly favoured to avoid defeat. Across major bookmakers, home odds range from 2.40 to 2.60 (implied probability roughly 38.5% to 41.7%), while away odds range from 2.62 to 2.88 (about 34.7% to 38.2%). Combining the draw and away outcomes aligns with both the unbeaten Levski form (DWWDW) and the model’s strong “win or draw” lean towards the visitors.
• Goals Tip: Under 2.5 total goals. Both teams average only 0.6 goals conceded per game in this Champions League campaign (3 conceded each in 5 matches), and the first leg finished 1-0 to Levski. Kairat have seen all 5 of their matches finish under 2.5 goals in terms of goals conceded thresholds, and Levski’s defensive record plus the high stakes of a second leg point towards another tight, cagey encounter.
• Value Tip: Levski Sofia to score at least one goal. Levski have not failed to score in any of their 5 Champions League matches (failed-to-score total 0), while Kairat have conceded in 3 of 5. With attacking contributors like Reinaldo (2 goals) and A. Oko-Flex (1 goal) and a team average of 1.8 goals per game, backing Levski to find the net once looks a sensible way to side with their offensive consistency, especially with Kairat obliged to open up at some stage.

Odds are accurate at the time of writing and subject to change. Please gamble responsibly.