Everton vs Sunderland: Premier League Showdown at Hill Dickinson Stadium

On 17 May 2026, Hill Dickinson Stadium in Liverpool stages a meeting heavy with late‑season tension as Everton welcome Sunderland with just two league games left and a single point between them. Everton, in mid-table but with an outside shot at the top half, know that victory could cement a respectable finish, while Sunderland arrive looking to leapfrog their hosts and prove they truly belong back among the Premier League elite.

Season Context

Everton sit 10th in the Premier League with 49 points from 36 matches, scoring 46 goals and conceding 46. That perfectly level goal record (46 scored, 46 conceded) underlines a side that has balanced some bright attacking displays with defensive lapses, leaving them hovering in the middle rather than pushing higher.

Sunderland are 12th with 48 points from their 36 games, having scored 37 goals and conceded 46. The negative goal difference (-9) reflects a team that has often been competitive but lacks consistent firepower (37 goals in 36 matches) and has been punished when their back line is stretched (46 goals conceded).

Form & Momentum

Everton’s recent league form is captured by the sequence “DDLLD”, a run that speaks of stalling momentum (49 points from 36 matches) and a tendency to share points rather than seize control. With 46 goals scored and 46 conceded across those 36 games, Everton’s per‑game profile is that of a side hovering around parity at both ends (about 1.3 goals scored and 1.3 conceded per match), which makes their inability to turn draws into wins particularly costly.

Sunderland arrive with the form string “DDLLW”, another mixed picture that combines resilience with vulnerability (48 points from 36 matches). Their attack has been slightly less productive than Everton’s over the campaign (37 goals versus Everton’s 46), and that thinner scoring output (just over 1.0 goal per game) has often left them needing defensive perfection, which has not always been forthcoming given their 46 goals conceded.

Head-to-Head Patterns

Recent history between these two has swung dramatically from cup shocks to comfortable wins. In the FA Cup, Sunderland stunned Everton on penalties after a 1-1 draw at Hill Dickinson Stadium on 10 January 2026, with the 1-1 scoreline after regular time and extra time eventually turning into a Sunderland success from the spot (FA Cup, season 2025, January 2026). In the Premier League, the sides shared the points in a 1-1 draw at Stadium of Light on 3 November 2025, a tight encounter that underlined how evenly matched they can be (Premier League, season 2025, November 2025). Further back, Everton enjoyed a commanding 3-0 home victory at Goodison Park on 20 September 2017, asserting clear superiority on the night (League Cup, season 2017, September 2017).

Tactical Preview

Everton’s statistical profile points towards a team built on a stable base and a clear preferred shape. The most common setup has been a 4-2-3-1 used in 21 league matches, suggesting a double pivot protecting the defence and a band of three supporting a lone striker. With 46 goals from 36 games (about 1.3 per match) and 46 conceded at the same rate, Everton tend to trade chances rather than lock games down, but 11 clean sheets in all competitions underline that they can be compact when required. The presence of J. Garner, who combines 7 assists with 115 tackles and 54 interceptions, gives them a ball‑winning and ball‑progressing option from deeper areas, while J. Grealish’s 6 assists and 40 key passes indicate a creative hub between the lines.

Out of possession, Everton’s defensive numbers (46 goals conceded in 36 matches) suggest they are not impenetrable, but the use of that 4-2-3-1, plus another occasional 4-3-3, points to a side comfortable defending in a mid‑block and then breaking quickly. J. O'Brien at the back, with 55 tackles and 16 blocks, adds aggression and aerial presence, though his one red card hints at a willingness to take risks in duels.

Sunderland, by contrast, have been tactically flexible, cycling primarily through a 4-2-3-1 (19 matches) but also using 4-3-3, 5-4-1, 4-4-2 and 4-1-4-1 with at least three appearances each. That variety reflects a coaching staff willing to adapt to opponents, whether by adding an extra centre-back in a 5-4-1 or pressing higher in a 4-3-3. Their 37 goals in 36 games (about 1.0 per match) show that they can struggle to create sustained pressure, but they have still produced 11 clean sheets, indicating periods of strong defensive organisation.

In midfield, G. Xhaka’s 6 assists, 1684 passes and 49 tackles make him a central metronome and protector, while E. Le Fée’s 4 goals and 5 assists, along with 83 tackles, suggest a box‑to‑box presence who can both disrupt and drive attacks. Sunderland’s defensive edge is tempered by disciplinary risks: Reinildo, D. Ballard and T. Hume all combine robust duelling with a notable card count, including one red card each for Reinildo and D. Ballard and 9 yellow cards for T. Hume, which could become a factor in a high‑stakes contest.

Given Everton’s stronger attacking metrics (46 goals versus Sunderland’s 37) and home advantage at Hill Dickinson Stadium, they are likely to try to dominate territory with their 4-2-3-1, pushing full-backs forward and relying on Garner and Grealish to feed the front line. Sunderland may respond with a more conservative version of their 4-2-3-1 or even a 5-4-1, looking to compress space, use Xhaka’s passing range to escape pressure, and exploit transitions, especially after their psychological boost from the recent FA Cup shootout success at this same venue.

Statistical Snapshot

• Competition: Premier League, season 2025 — 17 May 2026.
• Venue: Hill Dickinson Stadium, Liverpool.
• Prediction: Win or draw — Double chance : Everton or draw.
• Win Probabilities: Home 45% / Draw 45% / Away 10%.
• Model: Everton 60.0% — Sunderland 40.2%.

Betting Verdict

The predictive model leans clearly towards the hosts, favouring Everton or the draw, and the bookmakers broadly agree, with home odds clustered around 1.80–1.90, the draw roughly 3.60–3.80, and Sunderland out at around 4.00–4.30. Everton’s superior attacking record (46 goals versus Sunderland’s 37) and home advantage at Hill Dickinson Stadium support the “Double chance : Everton or draw” angle. Sunderland’s recent FA Cup triumph on penalties here and their flexible tactical setups suggest they can keep it competitive, but their lower win probability (10%) and weaker scoring rate tilt the value towards backing Everton to avoid defeat rather than chasing a riskier away upset.